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Emerging economies, trade policy, and macroeconomic shocks

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  • Bown, Chad P.
  • Crowley, Meredith A.

Abstract

This paper estimates the impact of aggregate fluctuations on the time-varying trade policies of thirteen major emerging economies over 1989-2010; by 2010, these WTO member countries collectively accounted for 21 percent of world merchandise imports and 22 percent of world GDP. The paper examines determinants of carefully constructed, bilateral measures of new import restrictions on products arising through the temporary trade barrier (TTB) policies of antidumping, safeguards, and countervailing duties. The paper presents evidence of a counter-cyclical relationship between macroeconomic shocks and new TTB import restrictions as well as an important role for fluctuations in bilateral real exchange rates. Furthermore, the trade policy responsiveness coinciding with WTO establishment in 1995 suggests a significant change relative to the pre-WTO period; i.e., new import restrictions became more counter-cyclical and sensitive to real exchange rate shocks over time. Finally, the paper also presents results that explicitly address changes to the institutional environment facing these emerging economies as they joined the WTO and adopted disciplines to restrain their application of other trade policies such as applied import tariffs.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 6315.

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Date of creation: 01 Jan 2013
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Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:6315

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Keywords: Currencies and Exchange Rates; Economic Theory&Research; Free Trade; Emerging Markets; Debt Markets;

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References

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  1. Andrew K. Rose, 2012. "Protectionism Isn’t Counter‐Cyclic (anymore)," NBER Working Papers 18062, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Kee, Hiau Looi & Neagu, Cristina & Nicita, Alessandro, 2010. "Is protectionism on the rise ? assessing national trade policies during the crisis of 2008," Policy Research Working Paper Series, The World Bank 5274, The World Bank.
  3. Bussière, Matthieu & Pérez-Barreiro, Emilia & Straub, Roland & Taglioni, Daria, 2010. "Protectionist responses to the crisis – global trends and implications," Occasional Paper Series 110, European Central Bank.
  4. Shang-Jin Wei & Arvind Subramanian, 2003. "The WTO Promotes Trade, Strongly But Unevenly," IMF Working Papers, International Monetary Fund 03/185, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Bown, Chad P. & Crowley, Meredith A., 2013. "Import protection, business cycles, and exchange rates: Evidence from the Great Recession," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 50-64.
  6. Chad P. Bown, 2011. "Taking Stock of Antidumping, Safeguards and Countervailing Duties, 1990–2009," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(12), pages 1955-1998, December.
  7. Chad P. Bown, 2008. "The Wto And Antidumping In Developing Countries," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(2), pages 255-288, 06.
  8. Thomas Prusa & Michael Knetter, 2000. "Macroeconomic Factors and Antidumping Filings: Evidence from Four Countries," Departmental Working Papers, Rutgers University, Department of Economics 200023, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  9. Grossman, Gene & Helpman, Elhanan, 1993. "Protection for Sale," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 827, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Crowley Meredith A., 2010. "Split Decisions in Antidumping Cases," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-26, July.
  11. Meredith Crowley, 2007. "Cyclical dumping and U.S. antidumping protection: 1980-2001," Working Paper Series, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago WP-07-21, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  12. Kyle Bagwell & Robert W. Staiger, 2006. "What Do Trade Negotiators Negotiate About? Empirical Evidence from the World Trade Organization," NBER Working Papers 12727, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Jay C. Shambaugh, 2004. "The Effect of Fixed Exchange Rates on Monetary Policy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, MIT Press, vol. 119(1), pages 300-351, February.
  14. Bown, Chad P., 2012. "Emerging economies and the emergence of south-south protectionism," Policy Research Working Paper Series, The World Bank 6162, The World Bank.
  15. Feinberg, Robert M, 1989. "Exchange Rates and "Unfair Trade."," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(4), pages 704-07, November.
  16. Bown, Chad P. & Tovar, Patricia, 2011. "Trade liberalization, antidumping, and safeguards: Evidence from India's tariff reform," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 115-125, September.
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Cited by:
  1. Bown, Chad P., 2012. "Emerging economies and the emergence of south-south protectionism," Policy Research Working Paper Series, The World Bank 6162, The World Bank.
  2. Georgiadis, Georgios & Gräb, Johannes, 2013. "Growth, real exchange rates and trade protectionism since the financial crisis," Working Paper Series, European Central Bank 1618, European Central Bank.
  3. Bown, Chad P., 2014. "Trade policy instruments over time," Policy Research Working Paper Series, The World Bank 6757, The World Bank.
  4. Bown, Chad P., 2013. "Trade policy flexibilities and Turkey : tariffs, antidumping, safeguards, and WTO dispute settlement," Policy Research Working Paper Series, The World Bank 6322, The World Bank.

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