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Macroeconomic Shocks, the ERM, and Tri-Polarity

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Bayoumi, Tamim
Taylor, Mark P

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Abstract

We analyse the importance of ERM membership for macroeconomic performance by comparing the behaviour of real output growth and inflation of members and non-members of the ERM. Taking the traditional aggregate supply and demand model as the basis for the analysis, we propose and implement an econometric procedure for identifying aggregate demand and supply shocks. The results confirm that the ERM has acted as a vehicle for macroeconomic policy coordination among its members. We also investigate several issues relating to the notion of a `tri-polar' global economic system comprising Germany, Japan and the US.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 711.

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Date of creation: Sep 1992
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:711

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Related research
Keywords: ERM; Macroeconomic Performance; Tri-polarity;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

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  1. Theptida Sopraseuth, 2003. "Exchange Rate Regimes and International Business Cycles," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 6(2), pages 338-361, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Adolfo Maza, 2006. "Wage flexibility and the EMU: a nonparametric and semiparametric analysis for the Spanish case," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 13(11), pages 733-736, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. George Tavlas, 1994. "The theory of monetary integration," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 5(2), pages 211-230, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Minoas Koukouritakis & Leo Michelis, 2003. "EU Enlargement: Are the New Countries Ready to Join the EMU? ," University of Cyprus Working Papers in Economics 6-2003, University of Cyprus Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  5. Minoas Koukouritakis & Leo Michelis, 2005. "Enlargement and Eurozone: Convergence or Divergence," Working Papers 0504, University of Crete, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  6. Mark P. Taylor, 2004. "Estimating structural macroeconomic shocks through long-run recursive restrictions on vector autoregressive models: the problem of identification," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(3), pages 229-244. [Downloadable!]
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