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The Price of Future Liquidity: Time-Varying Liquidity in the US Treasury Market

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Author Info
Goldreich, David
Hanke, Bernd
Nath, Purnendu
Abstract

This Paper examines the price differences between very liquid on-the-run US Treasury securities and less liquid off-the-run securities over the entire on/off cycle. Unlike previous studies, by comparing pairs of securities as their relative liquidity varies over time, we can disregard any cross-sectional differences between the securities. Also, since the liquidity of Treasury notes varies predictably over time we are able to distinguish between current liquidity and expected future liquidity. We show that the more liquid security is priced higher on average, but that this difference depends on the amount of expected future liquidity over its remaining lifetime rather than its current liquidity. We measure future liquidity using both quotes and trades. The liquidity measures include bid-ask spread, depth and trading activity. Examining a variety of liquidity measures enables us to evaluate their relative importance and to identify the liquidity proxies that most affect prices. Although all the measures are highly correlated with one another, we find that quoted bid-ask spread and quoted depth are more important than effective spread and trade size, respectively. Among measures of market activity, however, the number of trades and volume are more related to the liquidity premium than the number of quotes.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 3900.

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Date of creation: May 2003
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:3900

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Related research
Keywords: asset pricing; liquidity;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing
G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
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    Other versions:
  4. Pastor, Lubos & Stambaugh, Robert F., 2003. "Liquidity Risk and Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(3), pages 642-685, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Michael J. Fleming, 2001. "Measuring treasury market liquidity," Staff Reports 133, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-36, May-June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Barclay, Michael J. & Kandel, Eugene & Marx, Leslie M., 1998. "The Effects of Transaction Costs on Stock Prices and Trading Volume," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 130-150, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Pierluigi Balduzzi & Edwin J. Elton & T. Clifton Green, 1997. "Economic News and the Yield Curve: Evidence from the U.S. Treasury Market," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 98-005, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
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  16. Boudoukh, Jacob & Whitelaw, Robert F, 1993. "Liquidity as a Choice Variable: A Lesson from the Japanese Government Bond Market," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(2), pages 265-92. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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