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The Price of Future Liquidity: Time-Varying Liquidity in the US Treasury Market

Author

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  • Goldreich, David
  • Hanke, Bernd
  • Nath, Purnendu

Abstract

This Paper examines the price differences between very liquid on-the-run US Treasury securities and less liquid off-the-run securities over the entire on/off cycle. Unlike previous studies, by comparing pairs of securities as their relative liquidity varies over time, we can disregard any cross-sectional differences between the securities. Also, since the liquidity of Treasury notes varies predictably over time we are able to distinguish between current liquidity and expected future liquidity. We show that the more liquid security is priced higher on average, but that this difference depends on the amount of expected future liquidity over its remaining lifetime rather than its current liquidity. We measure future liquidity using both quotes and trades. The liquidity measures include bid-ask spread, depth and trading activity. Examining a variety of liquidity measures enables us to evaluate their relative importance and to identify the liquidity proxies that most affect prices. Although all the measures are highly correlated with one another, we find that quoted bid-ask spread and quoted depth are more important than effective spread and trade size, respectively. Among measures of market activity, however, the number of trades and volume are more related to the liquidity premium than the number of quotes.

Suggested Citation

  • Goldreich, David & Hanke, Bernd & Nath, Purnendu, 2003. "The Price of Future Liquidity: Time-Varying Liquidity in the US Treasury Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 3900, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:3900
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Perras, Patrizia & Wagner, Niklas, 2020. "Pricing equity-bond covariance risk: Between flight-to-quality and fear-of-missing-out," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    2. Chris D'Souza & Charles Gaa, 2004. "The Effects of Economic News on Bond Market Liquidity," Staff Working Papers 04-16, Bank of Canada.
    3. repec:dau:papers:123456789/2201 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Michael J. Fleming, 2003. "Measuring treasury market liquidity," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Sep, pages 83-108.
    5. Vayanos, Dimitri, 2004. "Flight to quality, flight to liquidity, and the pricing of risk," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 456, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    6. Frank de Jong & Joost Driessen, 2012. "Liquidity Risk Premia in Corporate Bond Markets," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 2(02), pages 1-34.
    7. Sohnke M. Bartram & Frank R. Fehle, 2003. "Alternative Market Structures for Derivatives," Finance 0311007, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 12 Dec 2003.
    8. Chris D'Souza & Charles Gaa & Jing Yang, 2003. "An Empirical Analysis of Liquidity and Order Flow in the Brokered Interdealer Market for Government of Canada Bonds," Staff Working Papers 03-28, Bank of Canada.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Liquidity; Asset pricing;

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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