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Can Book-to-Market, Size and Momentum Be Risk Factors That Predict Economic Growth

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Author Info
Liew, Jimmy
Vassalou, Maria
Abstract

We examine the extent to which the profitability of the HML, SMB, and WML trading strategies can be linked to future GDP growth. Using a large cross-section of securities from ten developed markets, we find that the HML and SMB portfolios contain significant information about future GDP growth. The predictive ability of these strategies is to a large degree independent of any information contained in the domestic market factor, which is known to be a leading indicator of economic growth. Even in the presence of popular business cycle variables, HML and SMB retain their ability to predict future economic growth in some of the countries examined. Our results support a risk-based explanation for the performance of the HML and SMB trading strategies. Little evidence was found to support such an explanation in the case of the WML trading strategy.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 2180.

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Date of creation: Jun 1999
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:2180

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Related research
Keywords: Book-to-Market; GDP growth; Momentum; Trading Strategies;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing
G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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  12. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Titman, Sheridan, 1993. " Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 65-91, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. John H. Cochrane, 1999. "New Facts in Finance," NBER Working Papers 7169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Locarno, Alberto & Massa, Massimo, 2005. "Monetary Policy Uncertainty and the Stock Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 4828, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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