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Five Facts about the UIP Premium

Author

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  • Varela, Liliana
  • Kalemli-Özcan, Sebnem

Abstract

We uncovered 5 novel facts on Uncovered Interest Parity (UIP) deviations for 22 emerging markets (EM). The average UIP premium -or the excess currency return- is: 1) always positive with large time-varying volatility; 2) correlates negatively with capital flows; 3) co-moves with global risk sentiments. 4) Using realized exchange rate changes or expected changes from survey data delivers the same result. 5) Policy uncertainty is the underlying primitive, capturing the high-frequency-variation in the UIP deviations, since country and currency risk are both captured by the interest rate differentials. Only fact (3) holds for advanced countries' excess currency returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Varela, Liliana & Kalemli-Özcan, Sebnem, 2022. "Five Facts about the UIP Premium," CEPR Discussion Papers 16244, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:16244
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    Cited by:

    1. Javier Bianchi & Saki Bigio & Charles Engel, 2021. "Scrambling for Dollars: International Liquidity, Banks and Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 29457, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Jeanne, Olivier, 2022. "Rounding the corners of the trilemma: A simple framework," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    3. Boermans, Martijn A. & Burger, John D., 2023. "Fickle emerging market flows, stable euros, and the dollar risk factor," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    4. Miguel Acosta-Henao & Andrés Fernández & Patricia Gomez-Gonzalez & Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, 2022. "The COVID-19 Shock and Firm Financing: Government or Market? Or Both?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 967, Central Bank of Chile.
    5. Gutierrez, Bryan & Ivashina, Victoria & Salomao, Juliana, 2023. "Why is dollar debt Cheaper? Evidence from Peru," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(3), pages 245-272.
    6. Javier Bianchi & Guido Lorenzoni, 2021. "The Prudential Use of Capital Controls and Foreign Currency Reserves," NBER Working Papers 29476, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Ekaterina Pirozhkova & Jeffrey Rakgalakane & Luchelle Soobyah & Rudi Steinbach, 2023. "Enhancing the Quarterly Projection Model," Working Papers 11048, South African Reserve Bank.
    8. Matthieu Bussière & Menzie Chinn & Laurent Ferrara & Jonas Heipertz, 2022. "The New Fama Puzzle," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 70(3), pages 451-486, September.
    9. Ekaterina Pirozhkova & Jeffrey Rakgalakane & Luchelle Soobyah Rudi Steinbach, 2023. "EnhancingtheQuarterlyProjectionModel," Working Papers 11044, South African Reserve Bank.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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