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The Real Effects of Bank Runs. Evidence from the French Great Depression (1930-1931)

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  • Monnet, Eric
  • ,
  • Ungaro, Stefano

Abstract

We investigate the causal impact of bank runs by exploiting a key feature of the French Great Depression (1930-1931) that created exogenous geographical variations in the withdrawals of bank deposits. Unregulated commercial banks coexisted with government-backed saving institutions (Caisses d’épargne). During the crisis, depositors who had an account in Caisses d’épargne were more likely to withdraw from banks. Pre-crisis density of Caisses d’épargne accounts was unrelated to economic and bank characteristics. Using this variable as an instrument, we find that a 1% decrease in bank branches reduced aggregate income by 1%. Our identification highlights how a shift of deposits towards safer institutions can affect financial fragility. It holds lessons for current financial regulation and the design of central bank digital currency (CBDC).

Suggested Citation

  • Monnet, Eric & , & Ungaro, Stefano, 2021. "The Real Effects of Bank Runs. Evidence from the French Great Depression (1930-1931)," CEPR Discussion Papers 16054, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:16054
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    Cited by:

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    3. Kristian Blickle & Markus K. Brunnermeier & Stephan Luck, 2022. "Who Can Tell Which Banks Will Fail?," NBER Working Papers 29753, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Mitchener, Kris & Monnet, Eric, 2023. "Connected Lending of Last Resort," CEPR Discussion Papers 17831, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Cyril Pouvelle., 2022. "An Analysis of Financial Conglomerate Resilience: A Perspective on bancassurance in France [Une analyse de la résilience des conglomérats financiers : Une perspective sur la bancassurance en France," Débats économiques et financiers 39, Banque de France.
    6. Giacomo Gabbuti, 2023. "Fiscal Sources and the Distribution of Income in Italy: The Italian Historical Taxpayers' Database," LEM Papers Series 2023/24, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    7. Shalva Mkhatrishvili & Wim Boonstra, 2022. "What we know on Central Bank Digital Currencies (so far)," NBG Working Papers 01/2022, National Bank of Georgia.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bank runs; Flight-to-safety; Banking panics; Great depression;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • N14 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Europe: 1913-
    • N24 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - Europe: 1913-

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