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France and the CEECs: Adjusting to Another Enlargement

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  • Cadot, Olivier
  • de Melo, Jaime

Abstract

The paper considers the effects of trade expansion between the EU and the Central and East European Countries (CEECs) on France. Taking a political-economy perspective, we attempt to detect potential demand for protection at the sectoral and regional level. Recent aggregate figures for trade and direct investment are reviewed, showing that French trade relations with the CEECs have as yet failed to expand by as much as a simple gravity relationship would predict, while French direct investment in the area remains small. The paper then considers disaggregated trade data; simple trade expansion simulations are carried out suggesting that job creation and destruction at the regional level is likely to be marginal. The paper closes by drawing a comparison with France's adjustment to the EU's 1986 Southern enlargement (to Spain and Portugal), showing that fears of job losses turned out in that case to be largely unfounded, while Spain attracted significant amounts of French direct investment.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 1049.

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Date of creation: Oct 1994
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:1049

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Related research

Keywords: CEECs; Economic Integration; France; Trade Protection;

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Cited by:
  1. Yener Kandogan, 2003. "On Types of Trade,Adjustment of Labor and Welfare Gains During Asymmetric Liberalizations," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 2003-568, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  2. Cadot, Olivier & Faini, Riccardo & de Melo, Jaime, 1995. "Early trade patterns under the Europe Agreements: France, Germany and Italy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(3-4), pages 601-610, April.
  3. Olivier Cortès & Sébastien Jean & Jean Pisani-Ferry, 1996. "Trade with Emerging Countries and the Labour Market: The French Case," Working Papers 1996-04, CEPII research center.
  4. Winter-Ebmer, Rudolf & Zimmermann, Klaus F., 1998. "East-West Trade and Migration: The Austro-German Case," IZA Discussion Papers 2, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).

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