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The Uruguay Round and Trade in Manufactures and Services. General Equilibrium Simulations of Production, Trade and Welfare Effects of Liberalization

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  • Haaland, Jan I.

Abstract

Using a numerical general equilibrium model we examine the possible production, trade and welfare effects of successful implementation of the Uruguay Round results. The model includes trade in manufactures and (some) services among industrial regions and countries; there is imperfect competition in most markets in the model, and we account for reductions in both tariffs and non-tariff barriers (NTBs). Our results indicate that the welfare effects of the liberalization we consider (i.e. ignoring both agriculture and trade with developing countries) may be fairly limited. Compared with a scenario of GATT failure and global protectionism, on the other hand, the gains are significant, and we conclude that the Uruguay Round plays an important role in avoiding a trade war in manufactures. We also show that the dynamic effects through endogenous investment growth might be just as important as the static effects reported.

Suggested Citation

  • Haaland, Jan I., 1994. "The Uruguay Round and Trade in Manufactures and Services. General Equilibrium Simulations of Production, Trade and Welfare Effects of Liberalization," CEPR Discussion Papers 1008, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:1008
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Taran Fæhn, 1997. "Non-Tariff Barriers - the Achilles' Heel of Trade Policy Analyses," Discussion Papers 195, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    2. Lee, Sang-Ho & Kim, Chung-Sil, 2012. "A Cge Analysis Of The Asean+3 Free Trade Agreement Under Different Market Structures," Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 53(2), pages 201-215, December.
    3. Elbehri, Aziz & Hertel, Thomas, 2006. "A Comparative Analysis of the EU-Morocco FTA vs. Multilateral Liberalization," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 21, pages 496-525.
    4. Francois, Joseph & Bradley McDonald, 1996. "Liberalization and Capital Accumulation in the GTAP Model," GTAP Technical Papers 310, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    5. Spinanger, Dean & Francois, Joseph F. & Glismann, Hans H., 2000. "The German Economy and EU Industrial Tariff Reductions: Partial and CGE Analyses of a Stillborn Millennium Round," Kiel Working Papers 999, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    6. Peter Walkenhorst, 2004. "Liberalising Trade in Textiles and Clothing: A Survey of Quantitative Studies," International Trade 0401007, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Spinanger, Dean & Francois, Joseph F. & Glismann, Hans H., 2000. "The Cost of EU Trade Protection in Textiles and Clothing," Kiel Working Papers 997, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    GATT; Liberalization; Regionalization; Trade Policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • F12 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies; Fragmentation
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation

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