ABSTRACT: This paper presents an overview of recent fiscal history in Colombia, and it projects the future course of fiscal deficits and the debt-to-GDP ratio under several different budgetary scenarios. Our projections, which are based on the macroeconomic and fiscal models developed at the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit, suggest that the current path of fiscal policy is not sustainable. Substantial increases in the government’s fiscal surplus are needed in order to return to a regime in which the debt-to-GDP ratio will stabilize in several decades. Our base case analysis suggests that stabilizing the debt-to-GDP ratio at 45 percent by the year 2030 would require a 1.8 percent of GDP reduction in the fiscal deficit, effective immediately. This assumes that the social security reforms introduced in the last Congress are enacted. If they are not, the required adjustment in the fiscal deficit is several percentage points greater.
Download Info
To our knowledge, this item is not available for
download. To find whether it is available, there are three
options:
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page
whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be
available.