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Politica Económica E Instituciones

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  • Miguel Urrutia Montoya

Abstract

Es evidente la preocupación actual entre analistas y responsables de la política económica colombiana por las finanzas públicas del país. La preocupación tiene dos dimensiones: Las perspectivas sobre la suerte futura del déficit del sector público asociada a los ingresos y erogaciones del sistema de seguridad social, y el crecimiento casi continuo del gasto público total, más intenso que el del producto interno bruto, por lo menos desde los años 50. Puesto que el país ha venido soportando una o dos reformas tributarias por cuatrienio gubernamental en los últimos decenios, incluyendo en una de las más recientes el aumento de las cotizaciones a la seguridad social, la percepción general entre quienes tienen la mencionada preocupación parece inclinarse hacia el examen del gasto público, sin duda con la esperanza de que el freno a su expansión y algunos cambios en su composición permitan que la situación fiscal permanezca bajo control. ¿ Por qué ha crecido el gasto público? En las páginas siguientes se ofrece una respuesta. Pero la respuesta es apenas, una conjetura y se ubica en un nivel de abstracción bastante alto, quizás excesivamente alto a juicio de los lectores. Con todo, creo que la respuesta es útil para tratar de estimular nuevas reflexiones en vista de que tradicionalmente se ha considerado, en Colombia, que el gasto público es un dato exógeno, desde el punto de vista del economista, y que el gobierno es un ser benevolente que sólo por insuficiente información, "desgreño administrativo" e imposiciones jurídicas podría ejecutar un gasto público excesivo o ineficiente (1). Eso en cuanto al contenido. Por su forma, este documento es una nota académica. En el cuerpo central la nota se expresa de manera informal y, aparentemente, más sencilla. En el anexo toma forma matemática. (1) Esta Hipótesis es reiterada a lo largo del "Mensaje de la Comisión de Racionalización" (1996).

Suggested Citation

  • Miguel Urrutia Montoya, 1996. "Politica Económica E Instituciones," Borradores de Economia 3332, Banco de la Republica.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000094:003332
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bertola, Giuseppe, 1993. "Factor Shares and Savings in Endogenous Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1184-1198, December.
    2. Alesina, Alberto & Spear, Stephen E., 1988. "An overlapping generations model of electoral competition," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 359-379, December.
    3. McGuire, Robert A & Ohsfeldt, Robert L, 1989. "Self-interest, Agency Theory, and Political Voting Behavior: The Ratification of the United States Constitution," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 219-234, March.
    4. Barro, Robert J, 1990. "Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 103-126, October.
    5. Buchanan, James M, 1987. "The Constitution of Economic Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(3), pages 243-250, June.
    6. Carlos A. Medina D. & Hernando Moreno G., 1995. "Desigualdad en la distribución del ingreso urbano en Colombia: un análisis de descomposición del coeficiente Gini," Coyuntura Social 13224, Fedesarrollo.
    7. Rogoff, Kenneth, 1990. "Equilibrium Political Budget Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(1), pages 21-36, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Carlos Esteban Posada, 1998. "Los mercados de instituciones y las instituciones endogenas," Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, Departamento de Economía, issue 48, pages 149-168, Enero Jun.
    2. Mauricio Cárdenas & Roberto Junguito B. & Mónica Pachón B., 2006. "Political Institutions and Policy Outcomes in Colombia : the Effects of the 1991 Constitution," Coyuntura Económica, Fedesarrollo, June.
    3. Sandra Patricia Martinez Tapias & Christian Fresard Briones, 1999. "Flujos de capitales en America Latina, 1990-1998," Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, Departamento de Economía, issue 50, pages 165-194, Enero Jun.

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