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Unbalanced Growth, Elasticity of Substitution, and Land Overvaluation

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  • Tomohiro Hirano
  • Alexis Akira Toda

Abstract

We study the long-run behavior of land prices when land plays the dual role of factor of production and store of value. In modern economies where technological progress is faster in non-land sectors, when the elasticity of substitution in production exceeds 1 at high input levels (which always holds if non-land factors do not fully depreciate), unbalanced growth occurs and land becomes overvalued on the long-run trend relative to the fundamental value defined by the present value of land rents. Around the trend, land prices exhibit recurrent stochastic fluctuations, with expansions and contractions in the size of land overvaluation. Keywords : asset price, elasticity of substitution, land, unbalanced growth. JEL codes : D53, G12, O41.

Suggested Citation

  • Tomohiro Hirano & Alexis Akira Toda, 2023. "Unbalanced Growth, Elasticity of Substitution, and Land Overvaluation," CIGS Working Paper Series 23-014E, The Canon Institute for Global Studies.
    • Handle: RePEc:cnn:wpaper:23-014e
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Joseph E. Stiglitz, 2015. "New Theoretical Perspectives on the Distribution of Income and Wealth among Individuals: Part I. The Wealth Residual," NBER Working Papers 21189, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    10. repec:hoo:wpaper:e-92-3 is not listed on IDEAS
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    Cited by:

    1. Chihiro Shimizu & Yongheng Deng & Tomoo Inoue & Kiyohiko Nishimura, 2024. "Demographics Outlook, Credit Conditions, and Property Prices," Working Papers e198, Tokyo Center for Economic Research.
    2. Hirano, Tomohiro & Toda, Alexis Akira, 2024. "Bubble economics," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 122042, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D53 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Financial Markets
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models

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