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Properties of Estimates of Daily GARCH Parameters Basaed on Intra-Day Observations

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Author Info
John Galbraith ()
Victoria Zinde-Walsh

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Abstract

We consider estimates of the parameters of GARCH models of daily financial returns, obtained using intra-day (high-frequency) returns data to estimate the daily conditional volatility.Two potential bases for estimation are considered. One uses aggregation of high-frequency Quasi- ML estimates, using aggregation results of Drost and Nijman (1993). The other uses the integrated volatility of Andersen and Bollerslev (1998), and obtains coefficients from a model estimated by LAD or OLS, in the former case providing consistency and asymptotic normality in some cases where moments of the volatility estimation error may not exist. In particular, we consider estimation in this way of an ARCH approximation, and obtain GARCH parameters by a method related to that of Galbraith and Zinde-Walsh (1997) for ARMA processes. We offer some simulation evidence on small-sample performance, and characterize the gains relative to standard quasi-ML estimates based on daily data alone.

Nous considérons les estimés des paramètres des modèles GARCH pour les rendements financiers journaliers, qui sont obtenus à l'aide des données intra-jour (haute fréquence) pour estimer la volatilité journalière. Deux bases potentielles sont evaluées. La première est fondée sur l'aggrégation des estimés quasi-vraisemblance-maximale, en profitant des résultats de Drost et Nijman (1993). L'autre utilise la volatilité integrée de Andersen et Bollerslev (1998), et obtient les coefficients d'un modèle estimé par LAD ou MCO; la première méthode résiste mieux à la possibilité de non-existence des moments de l'erreur en estimation de volatilité. En particulier, nous considérons l'estimation par approximation ARCH, et nous obtenons les paramètres par une méthode liée à celle de Galbraith et Zinde-Walsh (1997) pour les processus ARMA. Nous offrons des résultats provenant des simulations sur la performance des méthodes en échantillons finis, et nous décrivons les atouts relatifs à l'estimation standard de quasi-VM basée uniquement sur les données journalières.

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Paper provided by CIRANO in its series CIRANO Working Papers with number 2001s-15.

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Date of creation: 01 Feb 2001
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Handle: RePEc:cir:cirwor:2001s-15

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Keywords: GARCH; high frequency data; integrated volatility; LAD; GARCH; données haute fréquence; volatilité intégrée; LAD;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions

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  1. Torben Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Paul Labys, 1999. "The Distribution of Exchange Rate Volatility," NBER Working Papers 6961, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Bollen, B. & Inder, B., 1998. "A General Volatility Framework and the Generalised Historical Volatility Estimator," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 10/98, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  3. Nelson, Daniel B. & Foster, Dean P., 1995. "Filtering and forecasting with misspecified ARCH models II : Making the right forecast with the wrong model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 303-335, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Drost, Feike C & Nijman, Theo E, 1993. "Temporal Aggregation of GARCH Processes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 909-27, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim, 1997. "Intraday periodicity and volatility persistence in financial markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(2-3), pages 115-158, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Neil Shephard, 2005. "Stochastic Volatility," Economics Papers 2005-W17, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford. [Downloadable!]
  7. Drost, Feike C. & Werker, Bas J. M., 1996. "Closing the GARCH gap: Continuous time GARCH modeling," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 31-57, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1993. "Robust Nonstationary Regression," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1064, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Baillie, Richard T. & Bollerslev, Tim & Mikkelsen, Hans Ole, 1996. "Fractionally integrated generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 3-30, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. John M. Maheu & Thomas H. McCurdy, 2002. "Nonlinear Features of Realized FX Volatility," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(4), pages 668-681, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Andersen, Torben G & Bollerslev, Tim, 1998. "Answering the Skeptics: Yes, Standard Volatility Models Do Provide Accurate Forecasts," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 885-905, November.
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Nour Meddahi, 2001. "A Theoretical Comparison Between Integrated andRealized Volatilities / A Theoretical Comparison Between Integrated and Realized Volatilities," CIRANO Working Papers 2001s-71, CIRANO. [Downloadable!]
  2. Jeannette H.C. Woerner, 2003. "Estimation of Integrated Volatility in Stochastic Volatility Models," OFRC Working Papers Series 2003mf05, Oxford Financial Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  3. Nour Meddahi, 2002. "A theoretical comparison between integrated and realized volatility," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(5), pages 479-508. [Downloadable!]
  4. Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen & Neil Shephard, 2001. "Realised power variation and stochastic volatility models," Economics Papers 2001-W18, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford. [Downloadable!]
  5. Nour Meddahi, 2002. "ARMA Representation of Integrated and Realized Variances," CIRANO Working Papers 2002s-93, CIRANO. [Downloadable!]
  6. Jeannette H.C. Woerner, 2002. "Variational Sums and Power Variation: a unifying approach to model selection and estimation in semimartingale models," OFRC Working Papers Series 2002mf05, Oxford Financial Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
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