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On the Scaling Patterns of Infectious Disease Incidence in Cities

Author

Listed:
  • Oscar Patterson-Lomba

    (Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health)

  • Andres Gomez-Lievano

    (Center for International Development at Harvard University)

Abstract

Urban areas with larger and more connected populations offer an auspicious environment for contagion processes such as the spread of pathogens. Empirical evidence reveals a systematic increase in the rates of certain sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) with larger urban population size. However, the main drivers of these systemic infection patterns are still not well understood, and rampant urbanization rates worldwide makes it critical to advance our understanding on this front. Using confirmed-cases data for three STDs in US metropolitan areas, we investigate the scaling patterns of infectious disease incidence in urban areas. The most salient features of these patterns are that, on average, the incidence of infectious diseases that transmit with less ease– either because of a lower inherent transmissibility or due to a less suitable environment for transmission– scale more steeply with population size, are less predictable across time and more variable across cities of similar size. These features are explained, first, using a simple mathematical model of contagion, and then through the lens of a new theory of urban scaling. These frameworks help us reveal the links between the factors that determine the transmissibility of infectious diseases and the properties of their scaling patterns across cities.

Suggested Citation

  • Oscar Patterson-Lomba & Andres Gomez-Lievano, 2018. "On the Scaling Patterns of Infectious Disease Incidence in Cities," CID Working Papers 94a, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    • Handle: RePEc:cid:wpfacu:94a
    as

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    File URL: https://growthlab.cid.harvard.edu/files/growthlab/files/infectious_disease_incidence_rfwp_94.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Galea, Sandro & Freudenberg, Nicholas & Vlahov, David, 2005. "Cities and population health," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 60(5), pages 1017-1033, March.
    2. Andres Gomez-Lievano & Oscar Patterson-Lomba & Ricardo Hausmann, 2016. "Explaining the Prevalence, Scaling and Variance of Urban Phenomena," CID Working Papers 329, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    3. Lönnroth, Knut & Jaramillo, Ernesto & Williams, Brian G. & Dye, Christopher & Raviglione, Mario, 2009. "Drivers of tuberculosis epidemics: The role of risk factors and social determinants," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 68(12), pages 2240-2246, June.
    4. Semaan, Salaam & Sternberg, Maya & Zaidi, Akbar & Aral, Sevgi O., 2007. "Social capital and rates of gonorrhea and syphilis in the United States: Spatial regression analyses of state-level associations," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 64(11), pages 2324-2341, June.
    5. Cesar A. Hidalgo & Ricardo Hausmann, 2009. "The Building Blocks of Economic Complexity," Papers 0909.3890, arXiv.org.
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    Keywords

    cities; infectious diseases;

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