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Causal Ordering Between Inflation and Productivity of Labor and Capital: An Empirical Approach for Pakistan

Author

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  • Karrar Hussain

Abstract

This study attempts to analyze the causal relationship between inflation and productivity of labor and capital, in Pakistan’s economy by covering the period from 1960-M1 to 2007-M12. For this purpose Vector Autoregression (VAR) approach is used, which is based on error correction model (ECM). Using this approach we have showed the causal ordering between inflation and exchange rate management policy controlling for, monetary variables like broad money (M-2) and discount rate, which are endogenous in case of Pakistan. We considered the relationship of inflation with two measures of productivity (average and marginal productivity) of labor and capital controlling for capital labor ratio. The objective of this paper is to identify the relative importance of each of these inflation channels by generating Impulse Response Functions (IRFs) to confirm the response of a shock on a variable upon itself and other variables over the four years of time span. Our study concludes that there is a unidirectional causality from inflation to labor productivity through capital labor ratio. And also, there is bidirectional causality between inflation and capital productivity through capital labor ratio. And lastly each channel takes almost fifteen months (on average) for input productivities to affect or affected by inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Karrar Hussain, 2009. "Causal Ordering Between Inflation and Productivity of Labor and Capital: An Empirical Approach for Pakistan," CID Working Papers 39, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    • Handle: RePEc:cid:wpfacu:39
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    File URL: https://www.hks.harvard.edu/sites/default/files/centers/cid/files/publications/fellow_graduate_student_working_papers/039-2.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jarrett, J Peter & Selody, Jack G, 1982. "The Productivity-Inflation Nexus in Canada, 1963-1979," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 64(3), pages 361-367, August.
    2. Asif Idrees Agha & Noor Ahmed & Yasir Ali Mubarik & Hastam Shah, 2005. "Transmission Mechanism of Monetary Policy in Pakistan," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 1, pages 1-23.
    3. Noor Ahmed & Hastam Shah & Asif Idrees Agha & Yasir Ali Mubarik, 2005. "Transmission Mechanism of Monetary Policy in Pakistan," SBP Working Paper Series 09, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department.
    4. Ms. Magda E. Kandil, 2000. "The Asymmetric Effects of Exchange Rate Fluctuations: Theory and Evidence From Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 2000/184, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Magda Kandil, 2008. "The asymmetric effects of exchange rate fluctuations on output and prices: Evidence from developing countries," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(2), pages 257-296.
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    Cited by:

    1. Tariq Mahmood, 2015. "Mediating Effect of Advertising Expenditure on Labour Productivity - A Case of Manufacturing Industries in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 54(1), pages 1-15.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Productivity; Inflation; Vector Error Correction;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B22 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Macroeconomics
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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