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How to Escape from the Debt Trap: Lessons from the Past

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  • Thomas Mayer
  • Gunther Schnabl

Abstract

Rising public debt everywhere has raised the question of how to reduce debt again in the future. High public debt also seems to be an impediment for the exit of central banks from ultra-low interest rates and quantitative easing. Historical precedents and proposals have included austerity, haircuts and the generation of inflation. Each way has advantages and disadvantages, including uncertainty about effects and side-effects. We approach the issue from an historical perspective, based on case studies of prominent approaches to debt reduction. We analyze debt reduction through economic austerity in Italy, hyperinflation in Germany after World War I, inflation in Argentina since the 1980s, currency reform in Germany after WW II, and financial repression in the United States and the United Kingdom after WW II. Finally, we discuss Ronald McKinnon’s order of economic and financial liberalization as well as the Chicago Plan combined with the introduction of central bank digital currencies as an option for the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas Mayer & Gunther Schnabl, 2021. "How to Escape from the Debt Trap: Lessons from the Past," CESifo Working Paper Series 9078, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9078
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    Cited by:

    1. Akhmadieva, Veronika, 2022. "Fiscal adjustment in a panel of countries 1870–2016," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 555-568.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    low-interest trap; over-indebtness; public debt; hyperinflation; monetary reform; economic reform; inflation; public debt relief;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H12 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Crisis Management
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • P26 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - Property Rights

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