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The Transition Economies: A NATREX Evaluation of Research

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  • Jerome L. Stein

Abstract

This paper applies the NATREX model of equilibrium exchange rates to evaluate several key studies of the Central and Eastern European Countries (CEEC) in general, with particular emphasis upon the Czech Republic and Hungary and with references to Poland and Bulgaria. On the basis of the NATREX model, we evaluate several key studies to answer the questions: How can the trends in the real exchange rates of the transition economies be explained? What are sustainable trends in their real exchange rates? To what extent were the real exchange rates misaligned? What are sustainable/equilibrium current account deficits and net investment positions in the medium and in the long-run? What are the policy implications for the transition economies of the NATREX analysis?

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File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/page/portal/DocBase_Content/WP/WP-CESifo_Working_Papers/wp-cesifo-2005/wp-cesifo-2005-04/cesifo1_wp1449.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 1449.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_1449

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Keywords: transition economies; NATREX model; equilibrium real exchange rates; current account deficits; euro area;

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References

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  1. Piritta Sorsa & Dimitar Chobanov, 2004. "Competitiveness in Bulgaria," IMF Working Papers 04/37, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Vaclav Klaus, 2004. "Implications of this year's EU Enlargement: A preliminary Analysis," CESifo Forum, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 5(3), pages 61-63, 09.
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Cited by:
  1. Michael Frenkel & Isabell Koske, 2012. "Are the Real Exchange Rates of the New EU Member Countries in Line with Fundamentals? – Implications of the NATREX Approach," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 232(2), pages 129-145, March.

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