Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Comparing Ambiguous Inferences When Probabilities are Imprecise

Contents:

Author Info

Abstract

Suppose you are interested in the level of a state variable (e.g. a disease is present or absent or of a pre-specified level of severity, or a failure is recorded or not, etc.) and have a potentially useful but imperfect diagnostic test method, (e.g. a blood test result for this disease, or a quality control check for manufacturing defects, is either definitely positive or not). How do you interpret the result of the diagnostic test for the level of the state variable when some or all of the information underlying the inference is ambiguous (imprecise)? This publication for the Wolfram Demonstration project is designed to facilitate the "what-if" exploration of the effects of ambiguities (imprecision) in sensitivity, specificity, and base rate information, alone or in combination, on posterior inferences through a linked tabular natural frequency and graphical probability format representation of underlying uncertainties. The textual description explains the underlying theory of boundedly rational inference. An appendix contains the full Mathematica code used to implement the interactive software that implements and explains the underlying theory.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.econ.canterbury.ac.nz/RePEc/cbt/econwp/1008.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance in its series Working Papers in Economics with number 10/08.

as in new window
Length: 17 pages
Date of creation: 11 Mar 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cbt:econwp:10/08

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Private Bag 4800, Christchurch, New Zealand
Phone: 64 3 369 3123 (Administrator)
Fax: 64 3 364 2635
Web page: http://www.econ.canterbury.ac.nz
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Ambiguity; Bayesian decision making; inverse probabilities; choice under uncertainty; natural frequencies; Mathematica;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

No references listed on IDEAS
You can help add them by filling out this form.

Citations

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cbt:econwp:10/08. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Albert Yee).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.