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Conditional Convergence Revisited: Taking Solow Very Seriously

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Author Info
McQuinn, Kieran (Central Bank and Financial Services Authority of Ireland)
Whelan, Karl (Central Bank and Financial Services Authority of Ireland)

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Abstract

Output per worker can be expressed as a function of technological efficiency and of the capital-output ratio. Because technology is exogenous in the Solow model, all of the endogenous convergence dynamics take place through the adjustment of the capital-output ratio. This paper uses the empirical behaviour of the capital-output ratio to estimate the speed of conditional convergence of economies towards their steady-state paths. We find that the conditional convergence speed is about seven percent per year. This is somewhat faster than predicted by the Solow model and is significantly higher than reported in most previous studies based on output per worker regressions. We show that, once there are stochastic shocks to technology, standard panel econometric techniques produce downward-biased estimates of convergence speeds, while our approach does not.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Central Bank & Financial Services Authority of Ireland (CBFSAI) in its series Research Technical Papers with number 7/RT/06.

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Length: 40 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2006
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Handle: RePEc:cbi:wpaper:7/rt/06

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
O41 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
O47 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Measurement of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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  1. McQuinn, Kieran & Whelan, Karl, 2007. "Solow (1956) as a Model of Cross-Country Growth Dynamics," MPRA Paper 5892, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Socol Cristian & Socol Aura Gabriela & Marinas Marius-Corneliu, 2008. "The Analysis Of Equity-Efficiency Trade-Off In The European Union Economy," Annals of Faculty of Economics, University of Oradea, Faculty of Economics, vol. 2(1), pages 442-448, May. [Downloadable!]
  3. Mcquinn, Kieran & Whelan, Karl, 2006. "Prospects for Growth in the Euro Area," MPRA Paper 5893, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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