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Conditional Convergence Revisited: Taking Solow Very Seriously

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  • McQuinn, Kieran

    (Central Bank and Financial Services Authority of Ireland)

  • Whelan, Karl

    (Central Bank and Financial Services Authority of Ireland)

Abstract

Output per worker can be expressed as a function of technological efficiency and of the capital-output ratio. Because technology is exogenous in the Solow model, all of the endogenous convergence dynamics take place through the adjustment of the capital-output ratio. This paper uses the empirical behaviour of the capital-output ratio to estimate the speed of conditional convergence of economies towards their steady-state paths. We find that the conditional convergence speed is about seven percent per year. This is somewhat faster than predicted by the Solow model and is significantly higher than reported in most previous studies based on output per worker regressions. We show that, once there are stochastic shocks to technology, standard panel econometric techniques produce downward-biased estimates of convergence speeds, while our approach does not.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Central Bank of Ireland in its series Research Technical Papers with number 7/RT/06.

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Length: 40 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cbi:wpaper:7/rt/06

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Cited by:
  1. Kieran McQuinn & Karl Whelan, 2008. "Prospects for Growth in the Euro Area," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 54(4), pages 642-680, December.
  2. McQuinn, Kieran & Whelan, Karl, 2007. "Solow (1956) as a Model of Cross-Country Growth Dynamics," MPRA Paper 5892, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Schröder, Marcel, 2013. "Should developing countries undervalue their currencies?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 140-151.
  4. Socol Cristian & Socol Aura Gabriela & Marinas Marius-Corneliu, 2008. "The Analysis Of Equity-Efficiency Trade-Off In The European Union Economy," Annals of Faculty of Economics, University of Oradea, Faculty of Economics, vol. 2(1), pages 442-448, May.
  5. Museru, Malimu & Toerien, Francois & Gossel, Sean, 2014. "The Impact of Aid and Public Investment Volatility on Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 138-147.

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