Testing for Asymmetric Pricing Behaviour in Irish and UK Petrol and Diesel Markets
AbstractThis paper empirically tests whether Irish and UK petrol and diesel markets are characterised by asymmetric pricing behaviour. The econometric assessment uses threshold autoregressive models and a dataset of monthly refined oil and retail prices covering the period 1997 to mid-2009. A methodological note is included on the importance of the specification of the number of possible regimes. In particular, the possibility of conflicting price pressures arising from short-run dynamics in retail prices and responses to disequilibrium errors needs to be explicitly modelled. For both the Irish and UK liquid fuel markets at national levels, the paper concludes that there is no evidence to support the “rockets and feathers” hypothesis that retail prices rise faster than they fall in response to changes in oil prices. It is still possible that a lack of competition at a more local level may accommodate asymmetric pricing behaviour.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Central Bank of Ireland in its series Research Technical Papers with number 3/RT/10.
Length: 33 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2010
Date of revision:
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-04-17 (All new papers)
- NEP-COM-2010-04-17 (Industrial Competition)
- NEP-ENE-2010-04-17 (Energy Economics)
- NEP-IND-2010-04-17 (Industrial Organization)
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- Polemis, Michael L. & Fotis, Panagiotis N., 2013. "Do gasoline prices respond asymmetrically in the euro zone area? Evidence from cointegrated panel data analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 425-433.
- O'Brien, Derry & Weymes, Laura, 2010. "The Impact of Oil Prices on Irish Inflation," Quarterly Bulletin Articles, Central Bank of Ireland, pages 66-82, July.
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