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Utilidad de una Medida de la Eficiencia en la Generación de Ventas para la Predicción del Resultado

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  • Maria Cristina Abad Navarro

    (Departamento de Contabilidad y Economía Financiera Universidad de Sevilla)

Abstract

En este trabajo evaluamos la utilidad de una medida de la eficiencia en la generación de ventas, para la redicción del resultado de explotación futuro, bajo la hipótesis de que si la medida de la eficiencia es capaz de capturar el componente permanente de los resultados, debería ser útil para la predicción de los resultados futuros, en adición a los resultados actuales. Con el objetivo anterior, en una primera etapa, utilizamos el Análisis Envolvente de Datos (DEA) para determinar la ineficiencia relativa de las empresas en el uso de los recursos a su disposición para generar el nivel máximo posible de ventas. Los inputs incorporados en el modelo DEA ( gastos de personal, consumos de materias primas y otros, amortización, y otros gastos de explotación) se obtienen a partir de información contenida en la Cuenta de Pérdidas y Ganancias. En la segunda etapa, la medida de ineficiencia se introduce como variable explicativa en un modelo de regresión en el que la variable dependiente es el resultado de explotación en el año inmediatamente posterior. Los resultados del estudio empírico indican que la medida de ineficiencia relativa proporcionada por el modelo DEA tiene contenido informativo para la predicción delresultado de explotación futuro, en adición al resultado de explotación actual y pasado.

Suggested Citation

  • Maria Cristina Abad Navarro, 2003. "Utilidad de una Medida de la Eficiencia en la Generación de Ventas para la Predicción del Resultado," Working Papers 0307, Departament Empresa, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, revised Sep 2003.
    • Handle: RePEc:bbe:wpaper:0307
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    References listed on IDEAS

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