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Comment analyser le risque sociopolitique ? Une composante clé du risque-pays

Author

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  • Clémence Vergne
  • Camille Laville

Abstract

Les risques de nature sociopolitique constituent une dimension clé du risque-pays. L’expérience historique révèle en effet que les crises sociopolitiques peuvent durablement enrayer les processus de développement et conduire à une dégradation marquée des composantes économiques et financières du risque-pays. À titre d’illustration, un conflit civil coûte en moyenne à un pays en développement (PED) 30 années de croissance du produit intérieur brut (PIB) (cf. rapport sur le développement dans le monde de la Banque mondiale, 2011). De surcroît, le taux de pauvreté des pays qui sont le théâtre de crises prolongées peut être supérieur de plus de 20 points à celui des pays non victimes de crises. Enfin, les violences qui éclatent dans une zone ont tendance à se propager, compromettant les perspectives économiques de régions tout entières.En dépit de leur importance, l’intégration des risques sociopolitiques dans les analyses risque-pays est restée longtemps très marginale. Les crises récentes (le « Printemps arabe » et la crise sahélienne notamment) ont mis en exergue l’importance de l’appréciation de cette dimension du risque-pays et mis en lumière la fragilité des méthodes d’analyse.

Suggested Citation

  • Clémence Vergne & Camille Laville, 2018. "Comment analyser le risque sociopolitique ? Une composante clé du risque-pays," Working Paper 43fceb8c-8f0f-4aaa-af2e-1, Agence française de développement.
    • Handle: RePEc:avg:wpaper:fr8276
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Karl von Holdt, 2013. "South Africa: the transition to violent democracy," Review of African Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(138), pages 589-604, December.
    2. Vergne, Clémence, 2009. "Democracy, elections and allocation of public expenditures in developing countries," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 63-77, March.
    3. Vreeland, James Raymond, 2008. "Political Institutions and Human Rights: Why Dictatorships Enter into the United Nations Convention Against Torture," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 62(1), pages 65-101, January.
    4. Clémence Vergne, 2009. "Democracy, elections and allocation of public expenditures in developing countries," Post-Print hal-00368509, HAL.
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    • E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics

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