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A quantitative model of trading and price formation in financial markets

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  • Marcus G. Daniels
  • J. Doyne Farmer
  • Laszlo Gillemot
  • Giulia Iori
  • Eric Smith

Abstract

We use standard physics techniques to model trading and price formation in a market under the assumption that order arrival and cancellations are Poisson random processes. This model makes testable predictions for the most basic properties of a market, such as the diffusion rate of prices, which is the standard measure of financial risk, and the spread and price impact functions, which are the main determinants of transaction cost. Guided by dimensional analysis, simulation, and mean field theory, we find scaling relations in terms of order flow rates. We show that even under completely random order flow the need to store supply and demand to facilitate trading induces anomalous diffusion and temporal structure in prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcus G. Daniels & J. Doyne Farmer & Laszlo Gillemot & Giulia Iori & Eric Smith, 2001. "A quantitative model of trading and price formation in financial markets," Papers cond-mat/0112422, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2002.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:cond-mat/0112422
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Challet, Damien & Stinchcombe, Robin, 2001. "Analyzing and modeling 1+1d markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 300(1), pages 285-299.
    2. Hausman, Jerry A. & Lo, Andrew W. & MacKinlay, A. Craig, 1992. "An ordered probit analysis of transaction stock prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 319-379, June.
    3. Bollerslev, Tim & Domowitz, Ian & Wang, Jianxin, 1997. "Order flow and the bid-ask spread: An empirical probability model of screen-based trading," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(8-9), pages 1471-1491, June.
    4. Carl Chiarella & Giulia Iori, 2002. "A simulation analysis of the microstructure of double auction markets," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(5), pages 346-353.
    5. Domowitz, Ian & Wang, Jianxin, 1994. "Auctions as algorithms : Computerized trade execution and price discovery," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 29-60, January.
    6. Vasiliki Plerou & Parameswaran Gopikrishnan & Xavier Gabaix & H. Eugene Stanley, 2001. "Quantifying Stock Price Response to Demand Fluctuations," Papers cond-mat/0106657, arXiv.org.
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