IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2210.14195.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Using Deep Learning to Find the Next Unicorn: A Practical Synthesis

Author

Listed:
  • Lele Cao
  • Vilhelm von Ehrenheim
  • Sebastian Krakowski
  • Xiaoxue Li
  • Alexandra Lutz

Abstract

Startups often represent newly established business models associated with disruptive innovation and high scalability. They are commonly regarded as powerful engines for economic and social development. Meanwhile, startups are heavily constrained by many factors such as limited financial funding and human resources. Therefore the chance for a startup to eventually succeed is as rare as ``spotting a unicorn in the wild''. Venture Capital (VC) strives to identify and invest in unicorn startups during their early stages, hoping to gain a high return. To avoid entirely relying on human domain expertise and intuition, investors usually employ data-driven approaches to forecast the success probability of startups. Over the past two decades, the industry has gone through a paradigm shift moving from conventional statistical approaches towards becoming machine-learning (ML) based. Notably, the rapid growth of data volume and variety is quickly ushering in deep learning (DL), a subset of ML, as a potentially superior approach in terms capacity and expressivity. In this work, we carry out a literature review and synthesis on DL-based approaches, covering the entire DL life cycle. The objective is a) to obtain a thorough and in-depth understanding of the methodologies for startup evaluation using DL, and b) to distil valuable and actionable learning for practitioners. To the best of our knowledge, our work is the first of this kind.

Suggested Citation

  • Lele Cao & Vilhelm von Ehrenheim & Sebastian Krakowski & Xiaoxue Li & Alexandra Lutz, 2022. "Using Deep Learning to Find the Next Unicorn: A Practical Synthesis," Papers 2210.14195, arXiv.org.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2210.14195
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2210.14195
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hao Zhong & Chuanren Liu & Junwei Zhong & Hui Xiong, 2018. "Which startup to invest in: a personalized portfolio strategy," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 263(1), pages 339-360, April.
    2. Ünal, Cemre & Ceasu, Ioana, 2019. "A Machine Learning Approach Towards Startup Success Prediction," IRTG 1792 Discussion Papers 2019-022, Humboldt University of Berlin, International Research Training Group 1792 "High Dimensional Nonstationary Time Series".
    3. Yael V. Hochberg & Alexander Ljungqvist & Yang Lu, 2007. "Whom You Know Matters: Venture Capital Networks and Investment Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(1), pages 251-301, February.
    4. Islam, Mazhar & Fremeth, Adam & Marcus, Alfred, 2018. "Signaling by early stage startups: US government research grants and venture capital funding," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 35-51.
    5. Sergey Chernenko & Josh Lerner & Yao Zeng, 2021. "Mutual Funds as Venture Capitalists? Evidence from Unicorns [The role of boards of directors in corporate governance: a conceptual framework and survey]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(5), pages 2362-2410.
    6. José Santisteban & David Mauricio & Orestes Cachay, 2021. "Critical success factors for technology-based startups," International Journal of Entrepreneurship and Small Business, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 42(4), pages 397-421.
    7. Kaiser, Ulrich & Kuhn, Johan M., 2020. "The value of publicly available, textual and non-textual information for startup performance prediction," Journal of Business Venturing Insights, Elsevier, vol. 14(C).
    8. Sampsa Samila & Olav Sorenson, 2011. "Venture Capital, Entrepreneurship, and Economic Growth," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(1), pages 338-349, February.
    9. Nanda, Ramana & Rhodes-Kropf, Matthew, 2013. "Investment cycles and startup innovation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 403-418.
    10. Nahata, Rajarishi, 2008. "Venture capital reputation and investment performance," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 127-151, November.
    11. Michael Ewens & Matt Marx, 2018. "Founder Replacement and Startup Performance," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(4), pages 1532-1565.
    12. Marco Guerzoni & Consuelo R. Nava & Massimiliano Nuccio, 2019. "The survival of start-ups in time of crisis. A machine learning approach to measure innovation," Papers 1911.01073, arXiv.org.
    13. Hoenig, Daniel & Henkel, Joachim, 2015. "Quality signals? The role of patents, alliances, and team experience in venture capital financing," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(5), pages 1049-1064.
    14. Dafei Yin & Jing Li & Gaosheng Wu, 2021. "Solving the Data Sparsity Problem in Predicting the Success of the Startups with Machine Learning Methods," Papers 2112.07985, arXiv.org.
    15. Eulalia Skawińska & Romuald I. Zalewski, 2020. "Success Factors of Startups in the EU—A Comparative Study," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(19), pages 1-28, October.
    16. Manju Puri & Rebecca Zarutskie, 2012. "On the Life Cycle Dynamics of Venture-Capital- and Non-Venture-Capital-Financed Firms," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(6), pages 2247-2293, December.
    17. Carlos Díaz-Santamaría & Jacques Bulchand-Gidumal, 2021. "Econometric Estimation of the Factors That Influence Startup Success," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-14, February.
    18. Jermain C. Kaminski & Christian Hopp, 2020. "Predicting outcomes in crowdfunding campaigns with textual, visual, and linguistic signals," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 55(3), pages 627-649, October.
    19. Davila, Antonio & Foster, George & Gupta, Mahendra, 2003. "Venture capital financing and the growth of startup firms," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 18(6), pages 689-708, November.
    20. Ivo Blohm & Christoph Riedl & Johann Füller & Jan Marco Leimeister, 2016. "Rate or Trade? Identifying Winning Ideas in Open Idea Sourcing," Information Systems Research, INFORMS, vol. 27(1), pages 27-48, March.
    21. Hyytinen, Ari & Pajarinen, Mika & Rouvinen, Petri, 2015. "Does innovativeness reduce startup survival rates?," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 564-581.
    22. Zoltan Acs & Laszlo Szerb, 2007. "Entrepreneurship, Economic Growth and Public Policy," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 109-122, March.
    23. Robert C. Blattberg & Stephen J. Hoch, 1990. "Database Models and Managerial Intuition: 50% Model + 50% Manager," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 36(8), pages 887-899, August.
    24. Sang Yoon Shin, 2019. "Network advantage’s effect on exit performance: examining venture capital’s inter-organizational networks," International Entrepreneurship and Management Journal, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 21-42, March.
    25. Cumming, Douglas & Dai, Na, 2010. "Local bias in venture capital investments," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 362-380, June.
    26. Jan Kinne & David Lenz, 2021. "Predicting innovative firms using web mining and deep learning," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(4), pages 1-18, April.
    27. Clement Gastaud & Theophile Carniel & Jean-Michel Dalle, 2019. "The varying importance of extrinsic factors in the success of startup fundraising: competition at early-stage and networks at growth-stage," Papers 1906.03210, arXiv.org.
    28. Scott Shane, 2012. "The Importance of Angel Investing in Financing the Growth of Entrepreneurial Ventures," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 2(02), pages 1-42.
    29. Malmström, Malin & Voitkane, Aija & Johansson, Jeaneth & Wincent, Joakim, 2020. "What do they think and what do they say? Gender bias, entrepreneurial attitude in writing and venture capitalists’ funding decisions," Journal of Business Venturing Insights, Elsevier, vol. 13(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lele Cao & Gustaf Halvardsson & Andrew McCornack & Vilhelm von Ehrenheim & Pawel Herman, 2023. "Sourcing Investment Targets for Venture and Growth Capital Using Multivariate Time Series Transformer," Papers 2309.16888, arXiv.org.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lele Cao & Gustaf Halvardsson & Andrew McCornack & Vilhelm von Ehrenheim & Pawel Herman, 2023. "Sourcing Investment Targets for Venture and Growth Capital Using Multivariate Time Series Transformer," Papers 2309.16888, arXiv.org.
    2. Kang, Jun-Koo & Li, Yingxiang & Oh, Seungjoon, 2022. "Venture Capital Coordination in Syndicates, Corporate Monitoring, and Firm Performance," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    3. Rin, Marco Da & Hellmann, Thomas & Puri, Manju, 2013. "A Survey of Venture Capital Research," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 573-648, Elsevier.
    4. Tumasjan, Andranik & Braun, Reiner & Stolz, Barbara, 2021. "Twitter sentiment as a weak signal in venture capital financing," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 36(2).
    5. Christian Hackober & Carolin Bock, 2021. "Which investors’ characteristics are beneficial for initial coin offerings? Evidence from blockchain technology-based firms," Journal of Business Economics, Springer, vol. 91(8), pages 1085-1124, October.
    6. Alperovych, Yan & Hübner, Georges & Lobet, Fabrice, 2015. "How does governmental versus private venture capital backing affect a firm's efficiency? Evidence from Belgium," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 508-525.
    7. Berger, Marius & Hottenrott, Hanna, 2021. "Start-up subsidies and the sources of venture capital," Journal of Business Venturing Insights, Elsevier, vol. 16(C).
    8. Daniel Hain & Sofia Johan & Daojuan Wang, 2016. "Determinants of Cross-Border Venture Capital Investments in Emerging and Developed Economies: The Effects of Relational and Institutional Trust," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 138(4), pages 743-764, November.
    9. Epure, Mircea & Guasch, Martí, 2020. "Debt signaling and outside investors in early stage firms," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 35(2).
    10. Tereza Tykvová, 2018. "Venture capital and private equity financing: an overview of recent literature and an agenda for future research," Journal of Business Economics, Springer, vol. 88(3), pages 325-362, May.
    11. Suting Hong & Konstantinos Serfes & Veikko Thiele, 2020. "Competition in the venture capital market and the success of startup companies: Theory and evidence," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(4), pages 741-791, October.
    12. Grilli, Luca & Murtinu, Samuele, 2014. "Government, venture capital and the growth of European high-tech entrepreneurial firms," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(9), pages 1523-1543.
    13. Vincenzo Butticè & Francesca Pietro & Francesca Tenca, 2022. "They do not look alike: what kind of private investors do equity crowdfunded firms attract?," The Journal of Technology Transfer, Springer, vol. 47(6), pages 1707-1736, December.
    14. Julian Bafera & Simon Kleinert, 2023. "Signaling Theory in Entrepreneurship Research: A Systematic Review and Research Agenda," Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice, , vol. 47(6), pages 2419-2464, November.
    15. Josh Lerner & Ramana Nanda, 2020. "Venture Capital's Role in Financing Innovation: What We Know and How Much We Still Need to Learn," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 34(3), pages 237-261, Summer.
    16. Barry, Christopher B. & Mihov, Vassil T., 2015. "Debt financing, venture capital, and the performance of initial public offerings," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 144-165.
    17. Yuejia Zhang, 2018. "Gain or pain? New evidence on mixed syndication between governmental and private venture capital firms in China," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 51(4), pages 995-1031, December.
    18. Andrew Metrick & Ayako Yasuda, 2011. "Venture Capital and Other Private Equity: a Survey," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 17(4), pages 619-654, September.
    19. Wang, Lanfang & Wang, Susheng, 2012. "Economic freedom and cross-border venture capital performance," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 26-50.
    20. Chia-Ling Chang & Yen-Sheng Lee & Han-Kun Tien, 2021. "Does Venture Capital Affect Crowdfunding Performance?," Economic Review: Journal of Economics and Business, University of Tuzla, Faculty of Economics, vol. 19(2), pages 53-64, November.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2210.14195. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.