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Ensemble and Multimodal Approach for Forecasting Cryptocurrency Price

Author

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  • Zeyd Boukhers
  • Azeddine Bouabdallah
  • Matthias Lohr
  • Jan Jurjens

Abstract

Since the birth of Bitcoin in 2009, cryptocurrencies have emerged to become a global phenomenon and an important decentralized financial asset. Due to this decentralization, the value of these digital currencies against fiat currencies is highly volatile over time. Therefore, forecasting the crypto-fiat currency exchange rate is an extremely challenging task. For reliable forecasting, this paper proposes a multimodal AdaBoost-LSTM ensemble approach that employs all modalities which derive price fluctuation such as social media sentiments, search volumes, blockchain information, and trading data. To better support investment decision making, the approach forecasts also the fluctuation distribution. The conducted extensive experiments demonstrated the effectiveness of relying on multimodalities instead of only trading data. Further experiments demonstrate the outperformance of the proposed approach compared to existing tools and methods with a 19.29% improvement.

Suggested Citation

  • Zeyd Boukhers & Azeddine Bouabdallah & Matthias Lohr & Jan Jurjens, 2022. "Ensemble and Multimodal Approach for Forecasting Cryptocurrency Price," Papers 2202.08967, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2202.08967
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    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2202.08967
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Young Bin Kim & Jun Gi Kim & Wook Kim & Jae Ho Im & Tae Hyeong Kim & Shin Jin Kang & Chang Hun Kim, 2016. "Predicting Fluctuations in Cryptocurrency Transactions Based on User Comments and Replies," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(8), pages 1-17, August.
    2. Aniruddha Dutta & Saket Kumar & Meheli Basu, 2020. "A Gated Recurrent Unit Approach to Bitcoin Price Prediction," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-16, February.
    3. Julien Chevallier & Dominique Guégan & Stéphane Goutte, 2021. "Is It Possible to Forecast the Price of Bitcoin?," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 3(2), pages 1-44, May.
    4. Aboody, David & Even-Tov, Omri & Lehavy, Reuven & Trueman, Brett, 2018. "Overnight Returns and Firm-Specific Investor Sentiment," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 53(2), pages 485-505, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Wai Khuen Cheng & Khean Thye Bea & Steven Mun Hong Leow & Jireh Yi-Le Chan & Zeng-Wei Hong & Yen-Lin Chen, 2022. "A Review of Sentiment, Semantic and Event-Extraction-Based Approaches in Stock Forecasting," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(14), pages 1-20, July.

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