IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2112.14697.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Inflation Game

Author

Listed:
  • Wolfgang Kuhle

Abstract

We study a game where households convert paper assets, such as money, into consumption goods, to preempt inflation. The game features a unique equilibrium with high (low) inflation, if money supply is high (low). For intermediate levels of money supply, there exist multiple equilibria with either high or low inflation. Equilibria with moderate inflation, however, do not exist, and can thus not be targeted by a central bank. That is, depending on agents' equilibrium play, money supply is always either too high or too low for moderate inflation. We also show that inflation rates of long-lived goods, such as houses, cars, expensive watches, furniture, or paintings, are a leading indicator for broader, economy wide, inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Wolfgang Kuhle, 2021. "The Inflation Game," Papers 2112.14697, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2112.14697
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2112.14697
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Blanchard, Olivier J, 1979. "Backward and Forward Solutions for Economies with Rational Expectations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(2), pages 114-118, May.
    2. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Stanley Fischer, 1989. "Lectures on Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262022834, December.
    3. Stephen J. DeCanio, 1979. "Rational Expectations and Learning from Experience," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 93(1), pages 47-57.
    4. Sargent, Thomas J., 1993. "Bounded Rationality in Macroeconomics: The Arne Ryde Memorial Lectures," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198288695.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kujtim Avdiu & Stephan Unger, 2022. "Predicting Inflation—A Holistic Approach," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-14, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wolfgang Kuhle, 2016. "An Equilibrium Model with Computationally Constrained Agents," Papers 1611.01771, arXiv.org.
    2. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja & Kaushik Mitra, 2012. "Does Ricardian Equivalence Hold When Expectations Are Not Rational?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(7), pages 1259-1283, October.
    3. Rösl, Gerhard, 2006. "Regionalwährungen in Deutschland: Lokale Konkurrenz für den Euro?," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,43, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    4. Cars Hommes & Stefanie J. Huber & Daria Minina & Isabelle Salle, 2023. "Learning in a Complex World: Insights from an OLG Lab Experiment," Staff Working Papers 23-13, Bank of Canada.
    5. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2010_013 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Kuhle, Wolfgang, 2021. "Equilibrium with computationally constrained agents," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 77-92.
    7. Böhm, Volker, 2014. "Rational Expectations and the Stability of Balanced Monetary Development," VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100423, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    8. Mordecai Kurz, 2015. "Stabilizing Wage Policy," Discussion Papers 15-007, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
    9. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja & Kaushik Mitra, 2012. "Does Ricardian Equivalence Hold When Expectations Are Not Rational?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(7), pages 1259-1283, October.
    10. Parise, Gerald F., 1994. "Permanent income hypothesis and the cost of adjustment," ISU General Staff Papers 1994010108000012303, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    11. Chevillon, Guillaume & Mavroeidis, Sophocles, 2017. "Learning can generate long memory," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 198(1), pages 1-9.
    12. Gabaix, Xavier, 2015. "Behavioral Macroeconomics Via Sparse Dynamic Programming," CEPR Discussion Papers 11026, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Emiliano Brancaccio & Mauro Gallegati & Raffaele Giammetti, 2022. "Neoclassical influences in agent‐based literature: A systematic review," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(2), pages 350-385, April.
    14. Fernando de Holanda Barbosa, 2017. "Hyperinflation: Inflation Tax and Economic Policy Regime," SpringerBriefs in Economics, in: Exploring the Mechanics of Chronic Inflation and Hyperinflation, chapter 0, pages 61-75, Springer.
    15. Winkler, Bernhard, 2000. "Which kind of transparency? On the need for clarity in monetary policy-making," Working Paper Series 0026, European Central Bank.
    16. Stanley Fischer, 1991. "Growth, Macroeconomics, and Development," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 329-379, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. John Haltiwanger & Scott Schuh, 1999. "Gross job flows between plants and industries," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Mar, pages 41-64.
    18. Stefan Ried, 2009. "Putting Up a Good Fight: The Galí-Monacelli Model versus “The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomicsâ€," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2009-020, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    19. Fredrik Carlsson & Dinky Daruvala & Olof Johansson‐Stenman, 2005. "Are People Inequality‐Averse, or Just Risk‐Averse?," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 72(287), pages 375-396, August.
    20. Paulo M.M. Rodrigues & Rita Fradique Lourenço, 2015. "House prices: bubbles, exuberance or something else? Evidence from euro area countries," Working Papers w201517, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    21. Christian Groth & Karl-Josef Koch & Thomas Steger, 2006. "Rethinking the Concept of Long-Run Economic Growth," CESifo Working Paper Series 1701, CESifo.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2112.14697. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.