IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2111.15327.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

China's Easily Overlooked Monetary Transmission Mechanism: Monetary Reservoir

Author

Listed:
  • Shuguang Xiao
  • Xinglin Lai
  • Jiamin Peng

Abstract

The traditional monetary transmission mechanism usually views the equity markets as the monetary reservoir that absorbs over-issued money, but due to China's unique fiscal and financial system, the real estate sector has become an "invisible" non-traditional monetary reservoir in China for many years. First, using data from Chinese housing market and central bank for parameter estimation, we constructs a dynamic general equilibrium model that includes fiscal expansion and financial accelerator to reveal the mechanism of monetary reservoir. An asset can be called a loan product, which worked as financed asset for local fiscal expansion, as long as it satisfies the following three conditions: leveraged trading system, balance commitment payment, and the existence of the utility of local governments. This paper refers to this mechanism as the monetary reservoir that will push up the premium of loan product, form asset bubbles and has a significant impact on the effectiveness of monetary policy. Local governments leverage the sector of the loan product to obtain short-term growth by influencing the balance sheets of financial intermediaries through fiscal financing, expenditure and also investment, but this mechanism undermines the foundations of long-term growth by crowding out human capital and technological accumulation.

Suggested Citation

  • Shuguang Xiao & Xinglin Lai & Jiamin Peng, 2021. "China's Easily Overlooked Monetary Transmission Mechanism: Monetary Reservoir," Papers 2111.15327, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2022.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2111.15327
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2111.15327
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alejandro Justiniano & Giorgio Primiceri & Andrea Tambalotti, 2015. "Household leveraging and deleveraging," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 18(1), pages 3-20, January.
    2. Atif R. Mian & Amir Sufi, 2014. "House Price Gains and U.S. Household Spending from 2002 to 2006," Working Papers 2014-2, Princeton University. Economics Department..
    3. Thomas Chaney & David Sraer & David Thesmar, 2012. "The Collateral Channel: How Real Estate Shocks Affect Corporate Investment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(6), pages 2381-2409, October.
    4. Lin William Cong & Haoyu Gao & Jacopo Ponticelli & Xiaoguang Yang, 2019. "Credit Allocation Under Economic Stimulus: Evidence from China," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 32(9), pages 3412-3460.
    5. Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2012. "Credit Booms Gone Bust: Monetary Policy, Leverage Cycles, and Financial Crises, 1870-2008," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(2), pages 1029-1061, April.
    6. Tim Landvoigt & Monika Piazzesi & Martin Schneider, 2015. "The Housing Market(s) of San Diego," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(4), pages 1371-1407, April.
    7. Bernanke, Ben S & Blinder, Alan S, 1992. "The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transmission," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 901-921, September.
    8. Wu, Jing & Gyourko, Joseph & Deng, Yongheng, 2016. "Evaluating the risk of Chinese housing markets: What we know and what we need to know," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 91-114.
    9. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/75koqefued8i7pihbrl9u84p4u is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Shai Bernstein & Timothy Mcquade & Richard R. Townsend, 2021. "Do Household Wealth Shocks Affect Productivity? Evidence from Innovative Workers During the Great Recession," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(1), pages 57-111, February.
    11. Matteo Iacoviello & Stefano Neri, 2010. "Housing Market Spillovers: Evidence from an Estimated DSGE Model," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 125-164, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jensen, Henrik & Ravn, Søren Hove & Santoro, Emiliano, 2018. "Changing credit limits, changing business cycles," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 211-239.
    2. Batini, Nicoletta & Melina, Giovanni & Villa, Stefania, 2019. "Fiscal buffers, private debt, and recession: The good, the bad and the ugly," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    3. Ferrero, Andrea & Harrison, Richard & Nelson, Benjamin, 2018. "House Price Dynamics, Optimal LTV Limits and the Liquidity Trap," CEPR Discussion Papers 13400, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Rüth, Sebastian & Bachmann, Rüdiger, 2016. "Systematic Monetary Policy and the Macroeconomic Effects of Shifts in Loan-to-Value Ratios," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145826, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    5. Guerrieri, V. & Uhlig, H., 2016. "Housing and Credit Markets," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1427-1496, Elsevier.
    6. Pintus, Patrick A. & Wen, Yi & Xing, Xiaochuan, 2022. "The inverted leading indicator property and redistribution effect of the interest rate," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    7. Guerrieri, Luca & Iacoviello, Matteo, 2017. "Collateral constraints and macroeconomic asymmetries," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 28-49.
    8. Saleem Bahaj & Angus Foulis & Gabor Pinter, 2016. "The Residential Collateral Channel," Discussion Papers 1607, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM), revised Jun 2016.
    9. Turdaliev, Nurlan & Zhang, Yahong, 2019. "Household debt, macroprudential rules, and monetary policy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 234-252.
    10. Mølbak Ingholt, Marcus, 2022. "Multiple Credit Constraints and Time-Varying Macroeconomic Dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    11. Yi Wen & Xiaochuan Xing & Patrick Pintus, 2016. "Interest Rate Dynamics, Variable-Rate Loans, and the Business Cycle," 2016 Meeting Papers 293, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    12. Gete, Pedro, 2020. "Expectations and the housing boom and bust. An open economy view," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    13. Gabriel Jiménez & Steven Ongena & José-Luis Peydró & Jesús Saurina, 2017. "Do demand or supply factors drive bank credit,in good and crisis times?," Economics Working Papers 1567, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    14. Paolo Gelain & Kevin J. Lansing & Gisle J. Natvik, 2018. "Explaining the Boom–Bust Cycle in the U.S. Housing Market: A Reverse‐Engineering Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(8), pages 1751-1783, December.
    15. Menno, Dominik & Oliviero, Tommaso, 2020. "Financial intermediation, house prices, and the welfare effects of the U.S. Great Recession," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    16. Jensen, Henrik & Ravn, Søren Hove & Santoro, Emiliano, 2016. "Deepening Contractions and Collateral Constraints," CEPR Discussion Papers 11166, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    17. Patrick A. Pintus & Yi Wen & Xiaochuan Xing, 2015. "Interest Rate Dynamics, Variable-Rate Loan Contracts, and the Business Cycle," Working Papers 2015-32, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    18. Daisuke Ikeda & Toan Phan & Timothy Sablik, 2020. "Asset Bubbles and Global Imbalances," Richmond Fed Economic Brief, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 20, pages 1-4, January.
    19. Mariarosaria Comunale, 2017. "Synchronicity of real and financial cycles and structural characteristics in EU countries," CEIS Research Paper 414, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 25 Sep 2017.
    20. Charles Ka Yui Leung & Joe Cho Yiu Ng & Edward Tang, 2020. "Why is the Hong Kong Housing Market Unaffordable? Some Stylized Facts and Estimations," Globalization Institute Working Papers 380, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2111.15327. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.