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International Trade Network: Country centrality and COVID-19 pandemic

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  • Roberto Antonietti
  • Paolo Falbo
  • Fulvio Fontini
  • Rosanna Grassi
  • Giorgio Rizzini

Abstract

International trade is based on a set of complex relationships between different countries that can be modelled as an extremely dense network of interconnected agents. On the one hand, this network might favour the economic growth of countries, but on the other, it can also favour the diffusion of diseases, like the COVID-19. In this paper, we study whether, and to what extent, the topology of the trade network can explain the rate of COVID-19 diffusion and mortality across countries. We compute the countries' centrality measures and we apply the community detection methodology based on communicability distance. Then, we use these measures as focal regressors in a negative binomial regression framework. In doing so, we also compare the effect of different measures of centrality. Our results show that the number of infections and fatalities are larger in countries with a higher centrality in the global trade network.

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  • Roberto Antonietti & Paolo Falbo & Fulvio Fontini & Rosanna Grassi & Giorgio Rizzini, 2021. "International Trade Network: Country centrality and COVID-19 pandemic," Papers 2107.14554, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2107.14554
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Gian Paolo Clemente & Rosanna Grassi & Giorgio Rizzini, 2022. "The effect of the pandemic on complex socio-economic systems: community detection induced by communicability," Papers 2201.12618, arXiv.org.
    2. Célestin Coquidé & José Lages & Leonardo Ermann & Dima Shepelyansky, 2022. "COVID-19 impact on the international trade," Post-Print hal-03536528, HAL.
    3. William MESIET, 2023. "The nexus of foreign trade and economic growth in Tanzania. Examining the influence of COVID-19 pandemic. Evidence from vector error correction model," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(3(636), A), pages 273-296, Autumn.
    4. Bai, Xiao & Hu, Xiaoqian & Wang, Chao & Lim, Ming K. & Vilela, André L.M. & Ghadimi, Pezhman & Yao, Cuiyou & Stanley, H. Eugene & Xu, Huji, 2022. "Most influential countries in the international medical device trade: Network-based analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 604(C).
    5. C'elestin Coquid'e & Jos'e Lages & Leonardo Ermann & Dima L. Shepelyansky, 2022. "COVID-19 impact on the international trade," Papers 2201.07737, arXiv.org.

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