IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/1807.04211.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Robust estimation of superhedging prices

Author

Listed:
  • Jan Obloj
  • Johannes Wiesel

Abstract

We consider statistical estimation of superhedging prices using historical stock returns in a frictionless market with d traded assets. We introduce a plugin estimator based on empirical measures and show it is consistent but lacks suitable robustness. To address this we propose novel estimators which use a larger set of martingale measures defined through a tradeoff between the radius of Wasserstein balls around the empirical measure and the allowed norm of martingale densities. We establish consistency and robustness of these estimators and argue that they offer a superior performance relative to the plugin estimator. We generalise the results by replacing the superhedging criterion with acceptance relative to a risk measure. We further extend our study, in part, to the case of markets with traded options, to a multiperiod setting and to settings with model uncertainty. We also study convergence rates of estimators and convergence of superhedging strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Jan Obloj & Johannes Wiesel, 2018. "Robust estimation of superhedging prices," Papers 1807.04211, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2020.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1807.04211
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/1807.04211
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Friedrich Hubalek & Walter Schachermayer, 1998. "When Does Convergence of Asset Price Processes Imply Convergence of Option Prices?," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(4), pages 385-403, October.
    2. Rama Cont & Romain Deguest & Giacomo Scandolo, 2010. "Robustness and sensitivity analysis of risk measurement procedures," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(6), pages 593-606.
    3. Rüdiger Kiesel & Robin Rühlicke & Gerhard Stahl & Jinsong Zheng, 2016. "The Wasserstein Metric and Robustness in Risk Management," Risks, MDPI, vol. 4(3), pages 1-14, August.
    4. Krätschmer, Volker & Schied, Alexander & Zähle, Henryk, 2012. "Qualitative and infinitesimal robustness of tail-dependent statistical functionals," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 103(1), pages 35-47, January.
    5. Rama Cont & Romain Deguest & Giacomo Scandolo, 2010. "Robustness and sensitivity analysis of risk measurement procedures," Post-Print hal-00413729, HAL.
    6. Takahashi, Rinya, 1987. "Normalizing constants of a distribution which belongs to the domain of attraction of the Gumbel distribution," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 197-200, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Daniel Bartl & Samuel Drapeau & Jan Obloj & Johannes Wiesel, 2020. "Sensitivity analysis of Wasserstein distributionally robust optimization problems," Papers 2006.12022, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2021.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Carole Bernard & Ludger Rüschendorf & Steven Vanduffel & Ruodu Wang, 2017. "Risk bounds for factor models," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 631-659, July.
    2. Lazar, Emese & Zhang, Ning, 2019. "Model risk of expected shortfall," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 74-93.
    3. Asimit, Alexandru V. & Bignozzi, Valeria & Cheung, Ka Chun & Hu, Junlei & Kim, Eun-Seok, 2017. "Robust and Pareto optimality of insurance contracts," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 262(2), pages 720-732.
    4. Marcelo Brutti Righi, 2018. "A theory for combinations of risk measures," Papers 1807.01977, arXiv.org, revised May 2023.
    5. Zähle, Henryk, 2016. "A definition of qualitative robustness for general point estimators, and examples," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 12-31.
    6. Fissler Tobias & Ziegel Johanna F., 2021. "On the elicitability of range value at risk," Statistics & Risk Modeling, De Gruyter, vol. 38(1-2), pages 25-46, January.
    7. Koch-Medina Pablo & Munari Cosimo, 2014. "Law-invariant risk measures: Extension properties and qualitative robustness," Statistics & Risk Modeling, De Gruyter, vol. 31(3-4), pages 1-22, December.
    8. Marcelo Brutti Righi & Marlon Ruoso Moresco, 2020. "Inf-convolution and optimal risk sharing with countable sets of risk measures," Papers 2003.05797, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2022.
    9. Rossello, Damiano, 2015. "Ranking of investment funds: Acceptability versus robustness," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 245(3), pages 828-836.
    10. Paul Embrechts & Bin Wang & Ruodu Wang, 2015. "Aggregation-robustness and model uncertainty of regulatory risk measures," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 19(4), pages 763-790, October.
    11. Krätschmer, Volker & Schied, Alexander & Zähle, Henryk, 2017. "Domains of weak continuity of statistical functionals with a view toward robust statistics," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 1-19.
    12. Tobias Fissler & Johanna F. Ziegel, 2019. "Evaluating Range Value at Risk Forecasts," Papers 1902.04489, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2020.
    13. Krätschmer Volker & Schied Alexander & Zähle Henryk, 2015. "Quasi-Hadamard differentiability of general risk functionals and its application," Statistics & Risk Modeling, De Gruyter, vol. 32(1), pages 25-47, April.
    14. Tobias Fissler & Hajo Holzmann, 2022. "Measurability of functionals and of ideal point forecasts," Papers 2203.08635, arXiv.org.
    15. M. Burzoni & I. Peri & C. M. Ruffo, 2017. "On the properties of the Lambda value at risk: robustness, elicitability and consistency," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(11), pages 1735-1743, November.
    16. Rüdiger Kiesel & Robin Rühlicke & Gerhard Stahl & Jinsong Zheng, 2016. "The Wasserstein Metric and Robustness in Risk Management," Risks, MDPI, vol. 4(3), pages 1-14, August.
    17. Volker Krätschmer & Alexander Schied & Henryk Zähle, 2014. "Comparative and qualitative robustness for law-invariant risk measures," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 271-295, April.
    18. Ruodu Wang & Johanna F. Ziegel, 2014. "Distortion Risk Measures and Elicitability," Papers 1405.3769, arXiv.org, revised May 2014.
    19. Tobias Fissler & Johanna F. Ziegel, 2015. "Higher order elicitability and Osband's principle," Papers 1503.08123, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2015.
    20. Matteo Burzoni & Ilaria Peri & Chiara Maria Ruffo, 2016. "On the properties of the Lambda value at risk: robustness, elicitability and consistency," Papers 1603.09491, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2017.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1807.04211. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.