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Remarks on Bayesian Control Charts

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  • Amir Ahmadi-Javid
  • Mohsen Ebadi

Abstract

There is a considerable amount of ongoing research on the use of Bayesian control charts for detecting a shift from a good quality distribution to a bad quality distribution in univariate and multivariate processes. It is widely claimed that Bayesian control charts are economically optimal; see, for example, Calabrese (1995) [Bayesian process control for attributes. Management Science, DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.41.4.637] and Makis (2008) [Multivariate Bayesian control chart. Operations Research, DOI: 10.1287/opre.1070.0495]. Some researchers also generalize the optimality of controls defined based on posterior probabilities to the class of partially observable Markov decision processes. This note points out that the existing Bayesian control charts cannot generally be optimal because many years ago an analytical counterexample was provided by Taylor (1965) [Markovian sequential replacement processes. The Annals of Mathematical Statistics, DOI: 10.1214/aoms/1177699796].

Suggested Citation

  • Amir Ahmadi-Javid & Mohsen Ebadi, 2017. "Remarks on Bayesian Control Charts," Papers 1712.02860, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2017.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1712.02860
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Joel M. Calabrese, 1995. "Bayesian Process Control for Attributes," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 41(4), pages 637-645, April.
    2. Jue Wang & Chi-Guhn Lee, 2015. "Multistate Bayesian Control Chart Over a Finite Horizon," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 63(4), pages 949-964, August.
    3. Makis, Viliam, 2009. "Multivariate Bayesian process control for a finite production run," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 194(3), pages 795-806, May.
    4. Amir Ahmadi-Javid & Mohsen Ebadi, 2017. "Economic Design of Memory-Type Control Charts: The Fallacy of the Formula Proposed by Lorenzen and Vance (1986)," Papers 1708.06160, arXiv.org.
    5. Tagaras, George, 2017. "New indices for the evaluation of the statistical properties of Bayesian x¯ control charts for short runsAuthor-Name: Nikolaidis, Yiannis," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 259(1), pages 280-292.
    6. Viliam Makis, 2008. "Multivariate Bayesian Control Chart," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 56(2), pages 487-496, April.
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