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Pairs Trading under Drift Uncertainty and Risk Penalization

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  • Suhan Altay
  • Katia Colaneri
  • Zehra Eksi

Abstract

In this work, we study a dynamic portfolio optimization problem related to pairs trading, which is an investment strategy that matches a long position in one security with a short position in another security with similar characteristics. The relationship between pairs, called a spread, is modeled by a Gaussian mean-reverting process whose drift rate is modulated by an unobservable continuous-time, finite-state Markov chain. Using the classical stochastic filtering theory, we reduce this problem with partial information to the one with full information and solve it for the logarithmic utility function, where the terminal wealth is penalized by the riskiness of the portfolio according to the realized volatility of the wealth process. We characterize optimal dollar-neutral strategies as well as optimal value functions under full and partial information and show that the certainty equivalence principle holds for the optimal portfolio strategy. Finally, we provide a numerical analysis for a toy example with a two-state Markov chain.

Suggested Citation

  • Suhan Altay & Katia Colaneri & Zehra Eksi, 2017. "Pairs Trading under Drift Uncertainty and Risk Penalization," Papers 1704.06697, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2018.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1704.06697
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    10. Sangmin Lee & Andrew Papanicolaou, 2016. "Pairs Trading Of Two Assets With Uncertainty In Co-Integration'S Level Of Mean Reversion," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 19(08), pages 1-36, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Katia Colaneri & Alessandra Cretarola & Benedetta Salterini, 2021. "Optimal Investment and Proportional Reinsurance in a Regime-Switching Market Model under Forward Preferences," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(14), pages 1-27, July.
    2. Alessandra Cretarola & Benedetta Salterini, 2023. "Utility-based indifference pricing of pure endowments in a Markov-modulated market model," Papers 2301.13575, arXiv.org.
    3. Katia Colaneri & Stefano Herzel & Marco Nicolosi, 2021. "The value of knowing the market price of risk," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 299(1), pages 101-131, April.
    4. Sühan Altay & Katia Colaneri & Zehra Eksi, 2021. "Optimal convergence trading with unobservable pricing errors," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 299(1), pages 133-161, April.
    5. Flavio Angelini & Katia Colaneri & Stefano Herzel & Marco Nicolosi, 2021. "Implicit incentives for fund managers with partial information," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 539-561, October.
    6. E. Boguslavskaya & M. Boguslavsky & D. Muravey, 2020. "Trading multiple mean reversion," Papers 2009.09816, arXiv.org.
    7. Bandini, Elena & Calvia, Alessandro & Colaneri, Katia, 2022. "Stochastic filtering of a pure jump process with predictable jumps and path-dependent local characteristics," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 396-435.
    8. Suhan Altay & Katia Colaneri & Zehra Eksi, 2019. "Optimal Convergence Trading with Unobservable Pricing Errors," Papers 1910.01438, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2019.

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