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A stochastic model for commodity pairs trading

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  • Ahmet Göncü
  • Erdinc Akyildirim

Abstract

In this study, we introduce an optimal pairs trading model and verify its performance in the commodity futures markets. Empirical evidence from commodity futures indicates the existence of significant mean reversion together with high peak and fat tails for the distribution of spread residuals. Therefore, we assume an Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process with the noise term driven by a Lévy process with generalized hyperbolic distributed marginals. Our model not only provides trading signals, but also can be considered as a pair screening technique to rank all potential pairs for trade priority in terms of the distance to the expected profit-maximizing thresholds. Empirical examples and backtesting results obtained from commodity futures data show strong support for the profitability of the model even in the presence of transaction costs.

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  • Ahmet Göncü & Erdinc Akyildirim, 2016. "A stochastic model for commodity pairs trading," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(12), pages 1843-1857, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:quantf:v:16:y:2016:i:12:p:1843-1857
    DOI: 10.1080/14697688.2016.1211793
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    Cited by:

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    2. Johannes Stübinger & Lucas Schneider, 2019. "Statistical Arbitrage with Mean-Reverting Overnight Price Gaps on High-Frequency Data of the S&P 500," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-19, April.
    3. Vladimír Holý & Michal Černý, 2022. "Bertram’s pairs trading strategy with bounded risk," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 30(2), pages 667-682, June.
    4. Endres, Sylvia & Stübinger, Johannes, 2018. "A flexible regime switching model with pairs trading application to the S&P 500 high-frequency stock returns," FAU Discussion Papers in Economics 07/2018, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Institute for Economics.
    5. Vladim'ir Hol'y & Petra Tomanov'a, 2018. "Estimation of Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Process Using Ultra-High-Frequency Data with Application to Intraday Pairs Trading Strategy," Papers 1811.09312, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2022.
    6. Fernando Caneo & Werner Kristjanpoller, 2021. "Improving statistical arbitrage investment strategy: Evidence from Latin American stock markets," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 4424-4440, July.

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