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Understanding the Tracking Errors of Commodity Leveraged ETFs

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  • Kevin Guo
  • Tim Leung

Abstract

Commodity exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are a significant part of the rapidly growing ETF market. They have become popular in recent years as they provide investors access to a great variety of commodities, ranging from precious metals to building materials, and from oil and gas to agricultural products. In this article, we analyze the tracking performance of commodity leveraged ETFs and discuss the associated trading strategies. It is known that leveraged ETF returns typically deviate from their tracking target over longer holding horizons due to the so-called volatility decay. This motivates us to construct a benchmark process that accounts for the volatility decay, and use it to examine the tracking performance of commodity leveraged ETFs. From empirical data, we find that many commodity leveraged ETFs underperform significantly against the benchmark, and we quantify such a discrepancy via the novel idea of \emph{realized effective fee}. Finally, we consider a number of trading strategies and examine their performance by backtesting with historical price data.

Suggested Citation

  • Kevin Guo & Tim Leung, 2016. "Understanding the Tracking Errors of Commodity Leveraged ETFs," Papers 1610.09404, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1610.09404
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. K. Triantafyllopoulos & G. Montana, 2011. "Dynamic modeling of mean-reverting spreads for statistical arbitrage," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 23-49, April.
    2. Tim Leung & Xin Li, 2015. "Optimal Mean Reversion Trading With Transaction Costs And Stop-Loss Exit," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 18(03), pages 1-31.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jamie Kang & Tim Leung, 2017. "Asynchronous ADRs: overnight vs intraday returns and trading strategies," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 34(4), pages 580-596, October.
    2. Gregor Dorfleitner & Anna Gerl & Johannes Gerer, 2018. "The pricing efficiency of exchange-traded commodities," Review of Managerial Science, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 255-284, January.
    3. Tim Leung & Brian Ward, 2020. "Tracking VIX with VIX Futures: Portfolio Construction and Performance," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: John B Guerard & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF APPLIED INVESTMENT RESEARCH, chapter 21, pages 557-596, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Tim Leung & Brian Ward, 2018. "Dynamic Index Tracking and Risk Exposure Control Using Derivatives," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(2), pages 180-212, March.
    5. Guo, Kevin & Leung, Tim, 2017. "Understanding the non-convergence of agricultural futures via stochastic storage costs and timing options," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 6(C), pages 32-49.
    6. Tim Leung & Brian Ward, 2015. "The golden target: analyzing the tracking performance of leveraged gold ETFs," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 32(3), pages 278-297, August.
    7. Paolo Guasoni & Eberhard Mayerhofer, 2015. "The Limits of Leverage," Papers 1506.02802, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2017.
    8. Tim Leung & Matthew Lorig & Andrea Pascucci, 2014. "Leveraged {ETF} implied volatilities from {ETF} dynamics," Papers 1404.6792, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2015.

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