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A Semi-Markovian Modeling of Limit Order Markets

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  • Anatoliy Swishchuk
  • Nelson Vadori

Abstract

R. Cont and A. de Larrard (SIAM J. Finan. Math, 2013) introduced a tractable stochastic model for the dynamics of a limit order book, computing various quantities of interest such as the probability of a price increase or the diffusion limit of the price process. As suggested by empirical observations, we extend their framework to 1) arbitrary distributions for book events inter-arrival times (possibly non-exponential) and 2) both the nature of a new book event and its corresponding inter-arrival time depend on the nature of the previous book event. We do so by resorting to Markov renewal processes to model the dynamics of the bid and ask queues. We keep analytical tractability via explicit expressions for the Laplace transforms of various quantities of interest. We justify and illustrate our approach by calibrating our model to the five stocks Amazon, Apple, Google, Intel and Microsoft on June 21^{st} 2012. As in R. Cont and A. de Larrard, the bid-ask spread remains constant equal to one tick, only the bid and ask queues are modeled (they are independent from each other and get reinitialized after a price change), and all orders have the same size.

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  • Anatoliy Swishchuk & Nelson Vadori, 2016. "A Semi-Markovian Modeling of Limit Order Markets," Papers 1601.01710, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1601.01710
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Eric Smith & J Doyne Farmer & Laszlo Gillemot & Supriya Krishnamurthy, 2003. "Statistical theory of the continuous double auction," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(6), pages 481-514.
    2. Rama Cont & Adrien de Larrard, 2013. "Price Dynamics in a Markovian Limit Order Market," Post-Print hal-00552252, HAL.
    3. Pietro Fodra & Huy^en Pham, 2013. "High frequency trading and asymptotics for small risk aversion in a Markov renewal model," Papers 1310.1756, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2015.
    4. Pietro Fodra & Huyên Pham, 2013. "Semi Markov model for market microstructure," Working Papers hal-00819269, HAL.
    5. Pietro Fodra & Huy^en Pham, 2013. "Semi Markov model for market microstructure," Papers 1305.0105, arXiv.org.
    6. Rama Cont & Sasha Stoikov & Rishi Talreja, 2010. "A Stochastic Model for Order Book Dynamics," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 58(3), pages 549-563, June.
    7. Hugh Luckock, 2003. "A steady-state model of the continuous double auction," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(5), pages 385-404.
    8. Garman, Mark B., 1976. "Market microstructure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 257-275, June.
    9. Mendelson, Haim, 1982. "Market Behavior in a Clearing House," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1505-1524, November.
    10. Domowitz, Ian & Wang, Jianxin, 1994. "Auctions as algorithms : Computerized trade execution and price discovery," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 29-60, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Anatoliy Swishchuk & Tyler Hofmeister & Katharina Cera & Julia Schmidt, 2017. "General Semi-Markov Model For Limit Order Books," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 20(03), pages 1-21, May.

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