IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/1507.01610.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Analysis of Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process stopped at maximum drawdown and application to trading strategies with trailing stops

Author

Listed:
  • Grigory Temnov

Abstract

We propose a strategy for automated trading, outline theoretical justification of the profitability of this strategy and overview the hypothetical results in application to currency pairs trading. The proposed methodology relies on the assumption that processes reflecting the dynamics of currency exchange rates are in a certain sense similar to the class of Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes and exhibits the mean reverting property. In order to describe the quantitative characteristics of the projected return of the strategy, we derive the explicit expression for the running maximum of the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process stopped at maximum drawdown and look at the correspondence between derived characteristics and the observed ones.

Suggested Citation

  • Grigory Temnov, 2015. "Analysis of Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process stopped at maximum drawdown and application to trading strategies with trailing stops," Papers 1507.01610, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1507.01610
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/1507.01610
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pospisil, Libor & Vecer, Jan & Hadjiliadis, Olympia, 2009. "Formulas for stopped diffusion processes with stopping times based on drawdowns and drawups," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 119(8), pages 2563-2578, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Giovanni Masala & Filippo Petroni, 2023. "Drawdown risk measures for asset portfolios with high frequency data," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 265-289, June.
    2. Hongzhong Zhang, 2018. "Stochastic Drawdowns," World Scientific Books, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., number 10078.
    3. Zbigniew Palmowski & Joanna Tumilewicz, 2017. "Fair valuation of L\'evy-type drawdown-drawup contracts with general insured and penalty functions," Papers 1712.04418, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2018.
    4. David Landriault & Bin Li & Hongzhong Zhang, 2014. "On the Frequency of Drawdowns for Brownian Motion Processes," Papers 1403.1183, arXiv.org.
    5. Hongzhong Zhang & Olympia Hadjiliadis, 2012. "Drawdowns and the Speed of Market Crash," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 739-752, September.
    6. Zhang, Hongzhong & Leung, Tim & Hadjiliadis, Olympia, 2013. "Stochastic modeling and fair valuation of drawdown insurance," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 840-850.
    7. Cui, Zhenyu & Nguyen, Duy, 2016. "Omega diffusion risk model with surplus-dependent tax and capital injections," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 150-161.
    8. Zhenyu Cui, 2014. "Omega risk model with tax," Papers 1403.7680, arXiv.org.
    9. Baurdoux, E.J. & Palmowski, Z. & Pistorius, M.R., 2017. "On future drawdowns of Lévy processes," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 127(8), pages 2679-2698.
    10. Pavel V. Gapeev, 2022. "Perpetual American Double Lookback Options on Drawdowns and Drawups with Floating Strikes," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 749-788, June.
    11. Ola Mahmoud, 2015. "The Temporal Dimension of Risk," Papers 1501.01573, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2016.
    12. Zhang, Gongqiu & Li, Lingfei, 2023. "A general method for analysis and valuation of drawdown risk," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    13. Zhang, Xiang & Li, Lingfei & Zhang, Gongqiu, 2021. "Pricing American drawdown options under Markov models," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 293(3), pages 1188-1205.
    14. Vladimir Petrov & Anton Golub & Richard Olsen, 2019. "Instantaneous Volatility Seasonality of High-Frequency Markets in Directional-Change Intrinsic Time," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-31, April.
    15. Aleksandar Mijatovic & Martijn R. Pistorius, 2011. "On the drawdown of completely asymmetric Levy processes," Papers 1103.1460, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2012.
    16. Long Bai & Peng Liu, 2019. "Drawdown and Drawup for Fractional Brownian Motion with Trend," Journal of Theoretical Probability, Springer, vol. 32(3), pages 1581-1612, September.
    17. James B. Glattfelder & Anton Golub, 2022. "Bridging the Gap: Decoding the Intrinsic Nature of Time in Market Data," Papers 2204.02682, arXiv.org.
    18. Zhenyu Cui & Duy Nguyen, 2018. "Magnitude and Speed of Consecutive Market Crashes in a Diffusion Model," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 117-135, March.
    19. Pavel V. Gapeev & Neofytos Rodosthenous & V. L. Raju Chinthalapati, 2019. "On the Laplace Transforms of the First Hitting Times for Drawdowns and Drawups of Diffusion-Type Processes," Risks, MDPI, vol. 7(3), pages 1-15, August.
    20. Salminen, Paavo & Vallois, Pierre, 2020. "On the maximum increase and decrease of one-dimensional diffusions," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 130(9), pages 5592-5604.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1507.01610. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.