A Stochastic Volatility Model for Crude Oil Futures Curves and the Pricing of Calendar Spread Options
AbstractWe introduce a multi-factor stochastic volatility model based on the CIR/Heston stochastic volatility process. In order to capture the Samuelson effect displayed by commodity futures contracts, we add expiry-dependent exponential damping factors to their volatility coefficients. The pricing of single underlying European options on futures contracts is straightforward and can incorporate the volatility smile or skew observed in the market. We calculate the joint characteristic function of two futures contracts in the model and use the two-dimensional FFT method of Hurd and Zhou (SIFIN 2010) to price calendar spread options. The model leads to stochastic correlation between the returns of two futures contracts. We illustrate the distribution of this correlation in an example.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by arXiv.org in its series Papers with number 1401.7913.
Date of creation: Jan 2014
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://arxiv.org/
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Black, Fischer, 1976. "The pricing of commodity contracts," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 167-179.
- Darrell Duffie & Jun Pan & Kenneth Singleton, 1999.
"Transform Analysis and Asset Pricing for Affine Jump-Diffusions,"
NBER Working Papers
7105, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Darrell Duffie & Jun Pan & Kenneth Singleton, 2000. "Transform Analysis and Asset Pricing for Affine Jump-Diffusions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(6), pages 1343-1376, November.
- Bakshi, Gurdip & Madan, Dilip, 2000. "Spanning and derivative-security valuation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 205-238, February.
- Peter Christoffersen & Steven Heston & Kris Jacobs, 2009.
"The Shape and Term Structure of the Index Option Smirk: Why Multifactor Stochastic Volatility Models Work So Well,"
INFORMS, vol. 55(12), pages 1914-1932, December.
- Peter Christoffersen & Steven Heston & Kris Jacobs, 2009. "The Shape and Term Structure of the Index Option Smirk: Why Multifactor Stochastic Volatility Models Work so Well," CREATES Research Papers 2009-34, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
- Heston, Steven L, 1993. "A Closed-Form Solution for Options with Stochastic Volatility with Applications to Bond and Currency Options," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(2), pages 327-43.
- Aanand Venkatramanan & Carol Alexander, 2011. "Closed Form Approximations for Spread Options," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(5), pages 447-472, January.
- Anders B. Trolle & Eduardo S. Schwartz, 2009. "Unspanned Stochastic Volatility and the Pricing of Commodity Derivatives," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(11), pages 4423-4461, November.
- Bjerksund, Petter & Stensland, Gunnar, 2006. "Closed form spread option valuation," Discussion Papers 2006/20, Department of Business and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics.
- Margrabe, William, 1978. "The Value of an Option to Exchange One Asset for Another," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 33(1), pages 177-86, March.
- Stein, Elias M & Stein, Jeremy C, 1991. "Stock Price Distributions with Stochastic Volatility: An Analytic Approach," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 4(4), pages 727-52.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (arXiv administrators).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.