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Reducing Financial Avalanches By Random Investments

Author

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  • Alessio Emanuele Biondo
  • Alessandro Pluchino
  • Andrea Rapisarda
  • Dirk Helbing

Abstract

Building on similarities between earthquakes and extreme financial events, we use a self-organized criticality-generating model to study herding and avalanche dynamics in financial markets. We consider a community of interacting investors, distributed on a small-world network, who bet on the bullish (increasing) or bearish (decreasing) behavior of the market which has been specified according to the S&P500 historical time series. Remarkably, we find that the size of herding-related avalanches in the community can be strongly reduced by the presence of a relatively small percentage of traders, randomly distributed inside the network, who adopt a random investment strategy. Our findings suggest a promising strategy to limit the size of financial bubbles and crashes. We also obtain that the resulting wealth distribution of all traders corresponds to the well-known Pareto power law, while the one of random traders is exponential. In other words, for technical traders, the risk of losses is much greater than the probability of gains compared to those of random traders.

Suggested Citation

  • Alessio Emanuele Biondo & Alessandro Pluchino & Andrea Rapisarda & Dirk Helbing, 2013. "Reducing Financial Avalanches By Random Investments," Papers 1309.3639, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2013.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1309.3639
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    Cited by:

    1. Alessandro Pluchino & Alessio. E. Biondo & Andrea Rapisarda, 2018. "Exploring the role of talent and luck in getting success," Papers 1811.05206, arXiv.org.
    2. Tanimoto, Jun & Sagara, Hirokji, 2015. "How the indirect reciprocity with co-evolving norm and strategy for 2 × 2 prisoner’s dilemma game works for emerging cooperation," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 438(C), pages 595-602.
    3. A. E. Biondo & G. Burgio & A. Pluchino & D. Puglisi, 2022. "Taxation and evasion: a dynamic model," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 32(3), pages 797-826, July.
    4. L. S. Di Mauro & A. Pluchino & A. E. Biondo, 2018. "A Game of Tax Evasion: evidences from an agent-based model," Papers 1809.08146, arXiv.org.
    5. Katahira, Kei & Chen, Yu & Akiyama, Eizo, 2021. "Self-organized Speculation Game for the spontaneous emergence of financial stylized facts," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 582(C).
    6. Alessio Emanuele Biondo, 2018. "Order book microstructure and policies for financial stability," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 35(1), pages 196-218, March.
    7. Tanimoto, Jun, 2016. "Enhancement of cooperation in the spatial prisoner’s dilemma with a coherence-resonance effect through annealed randomness at a cooperator–defector boundary; comparison of two variant models," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 462(C), pages 714-724.
    8. Alessio Emanuele Biondo & Alfio Giarlotta & Alessandro Pluchino & Andrea Rapisarda, 2016. "Perfect Information vs Random Investigation: Safety Guidelines for a Consumer in the Jungle of Product Differentiation," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(1), pages 1-26, January.
    9. Biondo, A.E. & Pluchino, A. & Rapisarda, A., 2018. "Modeling surveys effects in political competitions," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 503(C), pages 714-726.
    10. , Aisdl, 2020. "Becoming Attuned," OSF Preprints j7f8y, Center for Open Science.
    11. Alessandro Pluchino & Giulio Burgio & Andrea Rapisarda & Alessio Emanuele Biondo & Alfredo Pulvirenti & Alfredo Ferro & Toni Giorgino, 2019. "Exploring the role of interdisciplinarity in physics: Success, talent and luck," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(6), pages 1-15, June.
    12. Alessandro Pluchino & Alessio Emanuele Biondo & Andrea Rapisarda, 2018. "Talent Versus Luck: The Role Of Randomness In Success And Failure," Advances in Complex Systems (ACS), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 21(03n04), pages 1-31, May.
    13. Biondo, Alessio Emanuele, 2017. "Learning to forecast, risk aversion, and microstructural aspects of financial stability," Economics Discussion Papers 2017-104, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    14. Inturri, Giuseppe & Le Pira, Michela & Giuffrida, Nadia & Ignaccolo, Matteo & Pluchino, Alessandro & Rapisarda, Andrea & D'Angelo, Riccardo, 2019. "Multi-agent simulation for planning and designing new shared mobility services," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 34-44.
    15. Stanislav S Borysov & Alexander V Balatsky, 2014. "Cross-Correlation Asymmetries and Causal Relationships between Stock and Market Risk," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(8), pages 1-11, August.
    16. Caserta, Maurizio & Pluchino, Alessandro & Rapisarda, Andrea & Spagano, Salvatore, 2021. "Why lot? How sortition could help representative democracy," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 565(C).
    17. Nadia Giuffrida & Michela Le Pira & Giuseppe Inturri & Matteo Ignaccolo & Giovanni Calabrò & Blochin Cuius & Riccardo D’Angelo & Alessandro Pluchino, 2020. "On-Demand Flexible Transit in Fast-Growing Cities: The Case of Dubai," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-15, May.
    18. , Aisdl, 2020. "The Serendipity Mindset," OSF Preprints w52y9, Center for Open Science.

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