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From Smile Asymptotics to Market Risk Measures

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  • Ronnie Sircar
  • Stephan Sturm

Abstract

The left tail of the implied volatility skew, coming from quotes on out-of-the-money put options, can be thought to reflect the market's assessment of the risk of a huge drop in stock prices. We analyze how this market information can be integrated into the theoretical framework of convex monetary measures of risk. In particular, we make use of indifference pricing by dynamic convex risk measures, which are given as solutions of backward stochastic differential equations (BSDEs), to establish a link between these two approaches to risk measurement. We derive a characterization of the implied volatility in terms of the solution of a nonlinear PDE and provide a small time-to-maturity expansion and numerical solutions. This procedure allows to choose convex risk measures in a conveniently parametrized class, distorted entropic dynamic risk measures, which we introduce here, such that the asymptotic volatility skew under indifference pricing can be matched with the market skew. We demonstrate this in a calibration exercise to market implied volatility data.

Suggested Citation

  • Ronnie Sircar & Stephan Sturm, 2011. "From Smile Asymptotics to Market Risk Measures," Papers 1107.4632, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2012.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1107.4632
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Philippe Artzner & Freddy Delbaen & Jean‐Marc Eber & David Heath, 1999. "Coherent Measures of Risk," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(3), pages 203-228, July.
    2. Susanne Klöppel & Martin Schweizer, 2007. "Dynamic Indifference Valuation Via Convex Risk Measures," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(4), pages 599-627, October.
    3. Martin Forde & Antoine Jacquier, 2009. "Small-Time Asymptotics For Implied Volatility Under The Heston Model," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 12(06), pages 861-876.
    4. Stadje, Mitja, 2010. "Extending dynamic convex risk measures from discrete time to continuous time: A convergence approach," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 391-404, December.
    5. Hans Föllmer & Alexander Schied, 2002. "Convex measures of risk and trading constraints," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 6(4), pages 429-447.
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    Cited by:

    1. Matthew Lorig, 2014. "Indifference prices and implied volatilities," Papers 1412.5520, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2015.
    2. Roger J. A. Laeven & Mitja Stadje, 2014. "Robust Portfolio Choice and Indifference Valuation," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 39(4), pages 1109-1141, November.

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