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From Smile Asymptotics to Market Risk Measures

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  • Ronnie Sircar
  • Stephan Sturm
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    Abstract

    The left tail of the implied volatility skew, coming from quotes on out-of-the-money put options, can be thought to reflect the market's assessment of the risk of a huge drop in stock prices. We analyze how this market information can be integrated into the theoretical framework of convex monetary measures of risk. In particular, we make use of indifference pricing by dynamic convex risk measures, which are given as solutions of backward stochastic differential equations (BSDEs), to establish a link between these two approaches to risk measurement. We derive a characterization of the implied volatility in terms of the solution of a nonlinear PDE and provide a small time-to-maturity expansion and numerical solutions. This procedure allows to choose convex risk measures in a conveniently parametrized class, distorted entropic dynamic risk measures, which we introduce here, such that the asymptotic volatility skew under indifference pricing can be matched with the market skew. We demonstrate this in a calibration exercise to market implied volatility data.

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    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/1107.4632
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by arXiv.org in its series Papers with number 1107.4632.

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    Date of creation: Jul 2011
    Date of revision: Jul 2012
    Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1107.4632

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    1. Martin Forde & Antoine Jacquier, 2009. "Small-Time Asymptotics For Implied Volatility Under The Heston Model," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 12(06), pages 861-876.
    2. Stadje, Mitja, 2010. "Extending dynamic convex risk measures from discrete time to continuous time: A convergence approach," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 391-404, December.
    3. Hans Föllmer & Alexander Schied, 2002. "Convex measures of risk and trading constraints," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 6(4), pages 429-447.
    4. Philippe Artzner & Freddy Delbaen & Jean-Marc Eber & David Heath, 1999. "Coherent Measures of Risk," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(3), pages 203-228.
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