# Dynamic Large Spatial Covariance Matrix Estimation in Application to Semiparametric Model Construction via Variable Clustering: the SCE approach

## Author Info

• Song Song
Registered author(s):

## Abstract

To better understand the spatial structure of large panels of economic and financial time series and provide a guideline for constructing semiparametric models, this paper first considers estimating a large spatial covariance matrix of the generalized $m$-dependent and $\beta$-mixing time series (with $J$ variables and $T$ observations) by hard thresholding regularization as long as ${{\log J \, \cx^*(\ct)}}/{T} = \Co(1)$ (the former scheme with some time dependence measure $\cx^*(\ct)$) or $\log J /{T} = \Co(1)$ (the latter scheme with some upper bounded mixing coefficient). We quantify the interplay between the estimators' consistency rate and the time dependence level, discuss an intuitive resampling scheme for threshold selection, and also prove a general cross-validation result justifying this. Given a consistently estimated covariance (correlation) matrix, by utilizing its natural links with graphical models and semiparametrics, after "screening" the (explanatory) variables, we implement a novel forward (and backward) label permutation procedure to cluster the "relevant" variables and construct the corresponding semiparametric model, which is further estimated by the groupwise dimension reduction method with sign constraints. We call this the SCE (screen - cluster - estimate) approach for modeling high dimensional data with complex spatial structure. Finally we apply this method to study the spatial structure of large panels of economic and financial time series and find the proper semiparametric structure for estimating the consumer price index (CPI) to illustrate its superiority over the linear models.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/1106.3921

## Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by arXiv.org in its series Papers with number 1106.3921.

as in new window
Length:
Date of revision: Jun 2011
Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1106.3921

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://arxiv.org/

## Related research

Keywords:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

## References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
1. Jianqing Fan & Jinchi Lv, 2008. "Sure independence screening for ultrahigh dimensional feature space," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 70(5), pages 849-911.
2. Stoker, Thomas M, 1986. "Consistent Estimation of Scaled Coefficients," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(6), pages 1461-81, November.
3. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1997. "Monetary policy shocks: what have we learned and to what end?," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues WP-97-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
4. Song Song & Peter J. Bickel, 2011. "Large Vector Auto Regressions," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2011-048, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
5. Wei Biao Wu, 2003. "Nonparametric estimation of large covariance matrices of longitudinal data," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 90(4), pages 831-844, December.
6. Pradeep Ravikumar & John Lafferty & Han Liu & Larry Wasserman, 2009. "Sparse additive models," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 71(5), pages 1009-1030.
7. Xia, Yingcun, 2008. "A Multiple-Index Model and Dimension Reduction," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 103(484), pages 1631-1640.
8. Ming Yuan & Yi Lin, 2006. "Model selection and estimation in regression with grouped variables," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 68(1), pages 49-67.
9. Yu Y. & Ruppert D., 2002. "Penalized Spline Estimation for Partially Linear Single-Index Models," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 97, pages 1042-1054, December.
10. Barnett,William A. & Powell,James & Tauchen,George E. (ed.), 1991. "Nonparametric and Semiparametric Methods in Econometrics and Statistics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521370905, October.
11. Song Song & Peter J. Bickel, 2011. "Large Vector Auto Regressions," Papers 1106.3915, arXiv.org.
12. Barnett,William A. & Powell,James & Tauchen,George E. (ed.), 1991. "Nonparametric and Semiparametric Methods in Econometrics and Statistics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521424318, October.
13. Li, Lexin & Li, Bing & Zhu, Li-Xing, 2010. "Groupwise Dimension Reduction," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 105(491), pages 1188-1201.
14. Fan, Jianqing & Fan, Yingying & Lv, Jinchi, 2008. "High dimensional covariance matrix estimation using a factor model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 147(1), pages 186-197, November.
15. Yingcun Xia & Howell Tong & W. K. Li & Li-Xing Zhu, 2002. "An adaptive estimation of dimension reduction space," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 64(3), pages 363-410.
16. Ahn, Hyungtaik & Powell, James L., 1993. "Semiparametric estimation of censored selection models with a nonparametric selection mechanism," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1-2), pages 3-29, July.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

## Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

## Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1106.3921. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (arXiv administrators).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.