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Automatic balance mechanisms for notional defined contribution pension systems guaranteeing social adequacy and financial sustainability: an application to the Italian pension system

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  • Devolder, Pierre

    (Université catholique de Louvain, LIDAM/ISBA, Belgium)

  • Levantesi, Susanna

    (Sapienza University of Rome, Italy)

  • Menzietti, Massimiliano

    (University of Calabria, Rende, Italy)

Abstract

Since the mid 1990s some European countries (including Italy) implemented a Notional Defined Contribution (NDC) pension system. Such a system is based on pay-as-you-go funding, while the pension amount is a function of the individual lifelong contribution. Despite many appealing features, the NDC system presents some drawbacks: first, it is vulnerable to demographic and economic shocks compromising the financial sustainability; second, it could fail to guarantee adequate pension benefits to pensioners. In order to reduce the first limit, automatic balance mechanisms (ABMs) have been proposed in literature and also implemented in Sweden, while solutions that combine financial sustainability and social adequacy have been applied only in a pay-as-you-go point system. The aim of this paper is to insert into the Italian NDC architecture ABMs that preserve social adequacy under financial sustainability constraints. Godinez-Olivares et al. (Insur Math Econ 69:117–126, 2016) built ABMs for a Defined Benefit pension system using nonlinear optimization techniques to calculate the optimal paths of the control variables representing the main drivers of the system: contribution rate, retirement age and indexation of pensions. Following this line of research, we have developed a nonlinear optimization model for the Italian NDC system based on three control variables: pensions indexation, notional rate and contribution rate. The objective function considers both social adequacy and contribution rate sustainability, under liquidity and sustainability constraints. In the numerical applicationwe apply the model to the Italian pension system and test the sensitivity of the results to different economic scenarios and objective function parameters.

Suggested Citation

  • Devolder, Pierre & Levantesi, Susanna & Menzietti, Massimiliano, 2020. "Automatic balance mechanisms for notional defined contribution pension systems guaranteeing social adequacy and financial sustainability: an application to the Italian pension system," LIDAM Reprints ISBA 2020025, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
    • Handle: RePEc:aiz:louvar:2020025
    DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10479-020-03819-x
    Note: In: Annals of Operations Research - to appear (2020)
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    1. Devolder, Pierre & de Valeriola, Sébastien, 2020. "Between DB and DC: optimal hybrid PAYG pension schemes," LIDAM Reprints ISBA 2020016, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
    2. Robert Holzmann, 2017. "The ABCs of nonfinancial defined contribution (NDC) schemes," International Social Security Review, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 70(3), pages 53-77, July.
    3. Markus Knell & Doris Prammer, 2006. "The Austrian Pension System – How Recent Reforms Have Changed Fiscal Sustainability and Pension Benefits," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 69-93.
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    7. Robert Holzmann & Edward Palmer, 2006. "Pension Reform : Issues and Prospects for Non-Financial Defined Contribution Schemes," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 6983, December.
    8. Carlos Vidal-Meliá & María del Carmen Boado-Penas & Ole Settergren, 2009. "Automatic Balance Mechanisms in Pay-As-You-Go Pension Systems," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 34(2), pages 287-317, April.
    9. Godínez-Olivares, Humberto & Boado-Penas, María del Carmen & Haberman, Steven, 2016. "Optimal strategies for pay-as-you-go pension finance: A sustainability framework," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 117-126.
    10. Willem Klein Haneveld & Matthijs Streutker & Maarten Vlerk, 2010. "An ALM model for pension funds using integrated chance constraints," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 177(1), pages 47-62, June.
    11. Markus Knell & Walpurga Köhler-Töglhofer & Doris Prammer, 2006. "The Austrian Pension System – How Recent Reforms Have Changed Fiscal Sustainability and Pension Benefits," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue Q2/06, pages 69-93.
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    Cited by:

    1. Lorenzo Fratoni & Susanna Levantesi & Massimiliano Menzietti, 2022. "Measuring Financial Sustainability and Social Adequacy of the Italian NDC Pension System under the COVID-19 Pandemic," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-23, December.
    2. Sipei Xu & Jia Zhang, 2022. "Do Social Pensions Affect the Physical and Mental Health of Rural Children in China? An Intergenerational Care Perspective," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(7), pages 1-25, March.
    3. Ishay Wolf & Smadar Levi, 2022. "Vague Pension Future: Empirical Evidence from the Israeli Radical Privatized Market," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-15, April.
    4. Shin Kimura & Tomoki Kitamura & Kunio Nakashima, 2023. "Investment risk-taking and benefit adequacy under automatic balancing mechanism in the Japanese public pension system," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-19, December.
    5. Sebastiano Vitali & Vittorio Moriggia, 2021. "Pension fund management with investment certificates and stochastic dominance," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 299(1), pages 273-292, April.

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