IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/pugtwp/333413.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Demographic change, national saving and international capital flows

Author

Listed:
  • Liu, Weifeng Larry

Abstract

This paper explores the impacts of demographic change on national saving and international capital flows. Introducing demographic structure and pension systems into a four-stage overlapping-generation model of a small open economy, the paper derives analytical solutions which link a wide range of factors to national saving and the current account. This framework enables tractable analysis of the effects of various demographic shocks on national saving and external balances, and also of the interaction between demographic shocks and productivity growth and pension systems. The demographic impacts on national saving and capital flows depend on the nature of demographic shocks (fertility or mortality; transitory, permanent or persistent) and on the stage of demographic shocks, as well as productivity growth and pension structure.

Suggested Citation

  • Liu, Weifeng Larry, 2022. "Demographic change, national saving and international capital flows," Conference papers 333413, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:333413
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/333413/files/11268.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bárány, Zsófia L. & Coeurdacier, Nicolas & Guibaud, Stéphane, 2023. "Capital flows in an aging world," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    2. Krueger, Dirk & Ludwig, Alexander, 2007. "On the consequences of demographic change for rates of returns to capital, and the distribution of wealth and welfare," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 49-87, January.
    3. Zsofia Barany & Nicolas Coeurdacier & Stéphane Guibaud, 2018. "Capital Flows in an Aging World," SciencePo Working papers hal-03393116, HAL.
    4. Lee, R., 2016. "Macroeconomics, Aging, and Growth," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, in: Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 59-118, Elsevier.
    5. David E. Bloom & Dara Lee Luca, 2016. "The Global Demography of Aging: Facts, Explanations, Future," PGDA Working Papers 13016, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
    6. Eugeni, Sara, 2015. "An OLG model of global imbalances," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 83-97.
    7. Yvonne Adema & Lex Meijdam & Harrie Verbon, 2008. "Beggar thy thrifty neighbour," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 21(4), pages 933-959, October.
    8. Hiroyuki Ito & Ken Tabata, 2010. "The spillover effects of population aging, international capital flows, and welfare," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 23(2), pages 665-702, March.
    9. Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier & Rey, Hélène, 2014. "External Adjustment, Global Imbalances, Valuation Effects," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 585-645, Elsevier.
    10. Mr. Gian M Milesi-Ferretti & Mr. Olivier J Blanchard, 2011. "(Why) Should Current Account Balances Be Reduced?," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 2011/003, International Monetary Fund.
    11. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/1evugr7cvq8naonad7623t1rbv is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Mr. Hamid Faruqee, 2002. "Population Aging and its Macroeconomic Implications: A Framework for Analysis," IMF Working Papers 2002/016, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Global imbalances and the financial crisis: products of common causes," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Oct, pages 131-172.
    14. Attanasio, O. & Bonfatti, A. & Kitao, S. & Weber, G., 2016. "Global Demographic Trends," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, in: Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 179-235, Elsevier.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bárány, Zsófia L. & Coeurdacier, Nicolas & Guibaud, Stéphane, 2023. "Capital flows in an aging world," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    2. Frédérique GANNON & Gilles LE GARREC & Vincent TOUZÉ, 2020. "The South’s Demographic Transtiton and International Capital Flows in a Financially Integrated World Economy," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 86(1), pages 1-45, March.
    3. Gannon, Frédéric & Le Garrec, Gilles & Touzé, Vincent, 2020. "The South's demographic transition and international capital flows in a financially integrated world economy," Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 86(1), pages 1-45, March.
    4. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5mcsclpvpm8lsadm6engnbebt7 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/1evugr7cvq8naonad7623t1rbv is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Niemeläinen, Julia, 2021. "External imbalances between China and the United States: A dynamic analysis with a life-cycle model," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    7. Willem DEVRIENDT & Freddy HEYLEN, 2020. "Macroeconomic and Distributional Effects of Demographic Change in an Open Economy - The Case of Belgium," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 86(1), pages 87-124, March.
    8. Gevorgyan, Kristine, 2021. "Demographic Changes and Current Account Imbalances," Journal of Economic Development, The Economic Research Institute, Chung-Ang University, vol. 46(3), pages 1-22, September.
    9. Miriam Koomen & Laurence Wicht, 2023. "Demographics and Current Account Imbalances: Accounting for the Full Age Distribution," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(3), pages 719-758, September.
    10. Zsofia Barany & Nicolas Coeurdacier & Stéphane Guibaud, 2018. "Capital Flows in an Aging World," SciencePo Working papers hal-03393116, HAL.
    11. Andrea Papetti, 2021. "Population aging, relative prices and capital flows across the globe," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1333, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    12. Mika Nieminen, 2017. "Patterns of international capital flows and their implications for developing countries," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2017-171, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    13. Hua Chai & Mr. Jun I Kim, 2018. "Demographics, Pension Systems and the Saving-Investment Balance," IMF Working Papers 2018/265, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Rafael Dix-Carneiro & João Paulo Pessoa & Ricardo Reyes-Heroles & Sharon Traiberman, 2023. "Globalization, Trade Imbalances, and Labor Market Adjustment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 138(2), pages 1109-1171.
    15. Zsofia Barany & Nicolas Coeurdacier & Stéphane Guibaud, 2015. "Fertility, Longevity and International Capital Flows," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/5402sfihji9, Sciences Po.
    16. Dramane Coulibaly & Blaise Gnimassoun & Valérie Mignon, 2018. "The tale of two international phenomena: International migration and global imbalances," Working Papers 2018-02, CEPII research center.
    17. Sokolova, Maria V., 2016. "Exchange Rates, International Trade and Growth: Re-Evaluation of Undervaluation," Conference papers 332790, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    18. Noëmie Lisack & Rana Sajedi & Gregory Thwaites, 2021. "Population Aging and the Macroeconomy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 17(2), pages 43-80, June.
    19. Fedotenkov, Igor & Van Groezen, Bas & Meijdam, Lex, 2019. "International trade with pensions and demographic shocks," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(1), pages 140-164, January.
    20. Jacopo Bonchi & Giacomo Caracciolo, 2021. "Declining natural interest rate in the US: the pension system matters," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1317, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    21. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/6dhper3pho8nspmsluhrt4lcd8 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Patrik Kupkovic, 2020. "R-star in Transition Economies: Evidence from Slovakia," Working and Discussion Papers WP 3/2020, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    23. Zsofia Barany & Nicolas Coeurdacier & Stéphane Guibaud, 2015. "Fertility, Longevity and International Capital Flows," SciencePo Working papers hal-01164462, HAL.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    International Relations/Trade; International Relations/Trade;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:333413. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/gtpurus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.