IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/pugtwp/333236.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Modelling the Long Term Potential Macroeconomic Impact of UK leaving the UK: case study on Wales

Author

Listed:
  • Khorana, Sangeeta
  • Narayanan, Badri
  • Perdikis, Nicholas

Abstract

This paper employs a computable general equilibrium (CGE) dynamic simulation model to analyse United Kingdom (UK) and European Union (EU) relationship and its impact on the Welsh economy. Two potential scenarios are simulated: (a) no economic partnership agreement between the UK and EU on 31 December 2020, i.e. trade between the UK and EU and the rest of the world would revert on World Trade Organisation (WTO) basis and default Most Favoured Nation (MFN) tariffs apply. (b) a transition period, i.e. continue the existing arrangement that includes membership of the Customs Union and Single Market, for a limited period after 31 December 2020. This models the possibility of a transition period to last for either two, three, five or 10 years. Results present a negative forecast for the Welsh (and UK) economy. The scenario, which sees the UK reverting to trading with the EU on WTO terms, generates maximum losses for Wales (and the UK) in the long-term. A transition period arrangement projects long-term losses for Wales that depend on the length of transition period such that a longer transition minimises losses for Wales (and the UK).

Suggested Citation

  • Khorana, Sangeeta & Narayanan, Badri & Perdikis, Nicholas, 2020. "Modelling the Long Term Potential Macroeconomic Impact of UK leaving the UK: case study on Wales," Conference papers 333236, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:333236
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/333236/files/9599.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Badri Narayanan, G. & Khorana, Sangeetha, 2014. "Tariff escalation, export shares and economy-wide welfare: A computable general equilibrium approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 109-118.
    2. Monique Ebell & James Warren, 2016. "The Long-Term Economic Impact of Leaving the EU," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 236(1), pages 121-138, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zamani, Omid & Chibanda, Craig & Pelikan, Janine, 2021. "Investigating Alternative Poultry Trade Policies in the Context of African Countries: Evidence from Ghana," 2021 Conference, August 17-31, 2021, Virtual 315173, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    2. Baker, Jessica & Carreras, Oriol & Kirby, Simon & Meaning, Jack & Piggott, Rebecca, 2016. "Modelling events: The short-term economic impact of leaving the EU," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 339-350.
    3. Patrick Bisciari, 2019. "A survey of the long-term impact of Brexit on the UK and the EU27 economies," Working Paper Research 366, National Bank of Belgium.
    4. Paulo Ferreira & Éder Pereira, 2019. "The impact of the Brexit referendum on British and European Union bank shares: a cross-correlation analysis with national indices," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 39(1), pages 335-346.
    5. Polyzos, Stathis & Samitas, Aristeidis & Katsaiti, Marina-Selini, 2020. "Who is unhappy for Brexit? A machine-learning, agent-based study on financial instability," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    6. Begg, Iain, 2017. "Making sense of the costs and benefits of Brexit: challenges for economists," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 83587, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    7. Ben Sita, Bernard, 2017. "Volatility patterns of the constituents of FTSE100 in the aftermath of the U.K. Brexit referendum," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 137-146.
    8. Gioele Figus & Katerina Lisenkova & Peter McGregor & Graeme Roy & Kim Swales, 2018. "The long‐term economic implications of Brexit for Scotland: An interregional analysis," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 97(1), pages 91-115, March.
    9. Mihaela Simionescu, 2017. "The Impact Of Immigrants On The UK Economy," Knowledge Horizons - Economics, Faculty of Finance, Banking and Accountancy Bucharest,"Dimitrie Cantemir" Christian University Bucharest, vol. 9(2), pages 31-46, June.
    10. David Comerford & José V Rodríguez Mora & Beata Javorcik, 2019. "The gains from economic integration," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 34(98), pages 201-266.
    11. Broadbent, Ben & Di Pace, Federico & Drechsel, Thomas & Harrison, Richard & Tenreyro, Silvana, 2019. "The Brexit vote, productivity growth and macroeconomic adjustments in the United Kingdom," Discussion Papers 51, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
    12. Dhingra, Swati & Machin, Stephen & Overman, Henry, 2017. "Local Economic Effects of Brexit," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 242, pages 24-36, November.
    13. Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Stolzenburg, Ulrich, 2016. "Zum Szenario eines Austritts des Vereinigten Königreichs aus der EU (Brexit)," Kiel Insight 2016.16, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    14. Stefan Schiman, 2016. "World Economy Expected to be Hardly Affected by UK's Exit from EU. Medium-term Forecast Until 2021," WIFO Bulletin, WIFO, vol. 21(17), pages 168-177, December.
    15. Ebell, Monique & Hurst, Ian & Warren, James, 2016. "Modelling the long-run economic impact of leaving the European Union," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 196-209.
    16. Zamani, Omid & Chibanda, Craig & Pelikan, Janine, 2020. "Tariff Escalation and Import Bans in the Economic Partnership Agreement between the EU and West Africa," Conference papers 333239, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    17. Simionescu, Mihaela, 2017. "The Influence of Brexit on the Foreign Direct Investment Projects and Inflows in the United Kingdom," GLO Discussion Paper Series 68, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    18. Irena Mikolajun & Jean-Marie Viaene, 2018. "Is Hard Brexit Detrimental to EU Integration? Theory and Evidence," CESifo Working Paper Series 7199, CESifo.
    19. Countryman, Amanda M. & Narayanan, Badri G., 2017. "Price volatility, tariff structure and the special safeguard mechanism," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 399-408.
    20. Sen, Rahul & Narayanan, Badri & Srivastava, Sadhana & Khorana, Sangeeta & Iyer, Chidambaran, 2020. "The Long-term Impact of Trade Wars and ‘Make in India on the Indian Economy," Conference papers 330229, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Political Economy;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:333236. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/gtpurus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.