IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/pugtwp/332630.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Analysis of Electric Supply Shortage and Change in a Factor of Production in Japan caused by Earthquakes using the GTAP-E Model

Author

Listed:
  • Higashi, Akiko

Abstract

This study analyzes the impact on the Japanese economy of an electric supply shortage caused by earthquakes, using the GTAP-E model. To verify that the simulation undertaken with the GTAP-E model can reproduce the impact seen in the real world, this study uses Japanese data concerning the electric supply shortage and capital stock in 2011—the year in which the Great East Japan Earthquake occurred—as exogenous values. Thereafter, this study compares the simulation results with Japanese macroeconomic data from 2011. In chapter 2, we analyze Japanese time-series data concerning the electric supply and macroeconomy. The results of the data survey described in this chapter indicate that in 2011, the total size of the electric supply in Japan fell by 4.57%, while Japan’s total capital stock fell by around 1.1%. Chapter 3 discusses in detail the structure of the substitution between capital and energy goods in the GTAP-E model. Burniaux and Truong (2002) explain in GTAP Technical Paper No. 16 that to estimate the values of the final elasticity of substitution (which in GTAP Technical Paper No. 16 is called the “outer” elasticity of substitution) between capital and the energy composite, we can use the formula for the case of a nested CES structure derived from Keller (1980). This formula uses the given substitution elasticity (which in GTAP Technical Paper No. 16 is called the “inner” elasticity of substitution) between capital and energy, the given substitution elasticities between the primary factors, and the cost share of the capital and energy composite. GTAP Technical Paper No. 16 shows that although most industries are characterized as having an overall complementary relationship between energy and capital, “electricity” in the United States and “electricity,” “ferrous metals,” and “chemical, rubber, plastic products” in Japan are characterized as having overall substitutional relationships. Chapter 3 of this paper estimates the values of the overall (“o...

Suggested Citation

  • Higashi, Akiko, 2015. "Analysis of Electric Supply Shortage and Change in a Factor of Production in Japan caused by Earthquakes using the GTAP-E Model," Conference papers 332630, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:332630
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/332630/files/7693.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Adam Rose & Shu‐Yi Liao, 2005. "Modeling Regional Economic Resilience to Disasters: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis of Water Service Disruptions," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(1), pages 75-112, February.
    2. Hertel, Thomas, 1997. "Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and applications," GTAP Books, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, number 7685, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yoshio Kajitani & Hirokazu Tatano, 2018. "Applicability of a spatial computable general equilibrium model to assess the short-term economic impact of natural disasters," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(3), pages 289-312, July.
    2. Elena Ianchovichina & Maros Ivanic, 2016. "Economic Effects of the Syrian War and the Spread of the Islamic State on the Levant," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(10), pages 1584-1627, October.
    3. Daoping Wang & Katie Jenkins & Nicole Forstenhäusler & Tianyang Lei & Jeff Price & Rachel Warren & Rhosanna Jenkins & Dabo Guan, 2021. "Economic impacts of climate-induced crop yield changes: evidence from agri-food industries in six countries," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 166(3), pages 1-19, June.
    4. Higashi, Akiko, 2016. "Analysis of the impact of the decline in crude oil imports on the Japanese economy," Conference papers 332701, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    5. Adam Rose & Zhenhua Chen & Dan Wei, 2023. "The economic impacts of Russia–Ukraine War export disruptions of grain commodities," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 45(2), pages 645-665, June.
    6. Michael C. Haung & Nobuhiro Hosoe, 2016. "Computable General Equilibrium Assessment Of A Compound Disaster In Northern Taiwan," Review of Urban & Regional Development Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(2), pages 89-106, July.
    7. Thomas Hertel & David Hummels & Terrie L. Walmsley, 2014. "The vulnerability of the Asian supply chain to localized disasters," Chapters, in: Benno Ferrarini & David Hummels (ed.), Asia and Global Production Networks, chapter 3, pages 81-111, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    8. Walmsley, Terrie & Rose, Adam & John, Richard & Wei, Dan & Hlávka, Jakub P. & Machado, Juan & Byrd, Katie, 2023. "Macroeconomic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    9. Simon J.Evenett & Mia Mikic & Ravi Ratnayake (ed.), 2011. "Trade-led growth: A sound strategy for Asia," ARTNeT Books and Research Reports, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), number brr10.
    10. Eromenko, Igor, 2010. "Accession to the WTO. Computable General Equilibrium Analysis: the Case of Ukraine. Part I," MPRA Paper 67476, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Ianchovichina, Elena, 2004. "Trade policy analysis in the presence of duty drawbacks," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 353-371, April.
    12. Ivanic, Maros & Martin, Will, 2010. "Promoting Global Agricultural Growth and Poverty Reduction," Conference papers 331944, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    13. Ronald D. Sands & Katja Schumacher & Hannah Forster, 2014. "U.S. CO2 Mitigation in a Global Context: Welfare, Trade and Land Use," The Energy Journal, , vol. 35(1_suppl), pages 181-198, June.
    14. Sergey Paltsev & John Reilly, 2007. "Long-Term Energy Scenarios for Asia," Energy and Environmental Modeling 2007 24000047, EcoMod.
    15. Pierre Boulanger & Hasan Dudu & Emanuele Ferrari & George Philippidis, 2016. "Russian Roulette at the Trade Table: A Specific Factors CGE Analysis of an Agri-food Import Ban," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 67(2), pages 272-291, June.
    16. Gruere, Guillaume P. & Mevel, Simon & Bouet, Antoine, 2007. "Genetically Modified Rice, International Trade, and First-Mover Advantage: The Case of India and China," 2007: China's Agricultural Trade: Issues and Prospects Symposium, July 2007, Beijing, China 55032, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    17. Peterson, Everett B., 2004. "A Comparison of Marketing Margins Across Sectors, Users, and Regions," Conference papers 331224, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    18. Jiang, Tingsong, 2003. "The Impact of China's WTO Accession on its Regional Economies," Australasian Agribusiness Review, University of Melbourne, Department of Agriculture and Food Systems, vol. 11.
    19. Paul Raschky, 2007. "Estimating the effects of risk transfer mechanisms against floods in Europe and U.S.A.: A dynamic panel approach," Working Papers 2007-05, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, Universität Innsbruck.
    20. Henseler, Martin & Piot-Lepetit, Isabelle & Ferrari, Emanuele & Mellado, Aida Gonzalez & Banse, Martin & Grethe, Harald & Parisi, Claudia & Hélaine, Sophie, 2013. "On the asynchronous approvals of GM crops: Potential market impacts of a trade disruption of EU soy imports," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 166-176.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Resource /Energy Economics and Policy;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:332630. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/gtpurus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.