IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/feemdp/99638.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Uncertainty in Integrated Assessment Models of Climate Change: Alternative Analytical Approaches

Author

Listed:
  • Golub, Alexander
  • Narita, Daiju
  • Schmidt, Matthias G.W.

Abstract

Uncertainty plays a key role in the economics of climate change, and the discussions surrounding its implications for climate policy are far from settled. We give an overview of the literature on uncertainty in integrated assessment models of climate change and identify some future research needs. In the paper, we pay particular attention to three different and complementary approaches that model uncertainty in association with integrated assessment models: the discrete uncertainty modeling, the most common way to incorporate uncertainty in complex climate-economy models: the real options analysis, a simplified way to identify and value flexibility: the continuous-time stochastic dynamic programming, which is computationally most challenging but necessary if persistent stochasticity is considered.

Suggested Citation

  • Golub, Alexander & Narita, Daiju & Schmidt, Matthias G.W., 2011. "Uncertainty in Integrated Assessment Models of Climate Change: Alternative Analytical Approaches," Sustainable Development Papers 99638, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:feemdp:99638
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.99638
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/99638/files/NDL2011-002.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.99638?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yu-Fu Chen & Michael Funke & Nicole Glanemann, 2011. "Time is Running Out: The 2°C Target and Optimal Climate Policies," Dundee Discussion Papers in Economics 262, Economic Studies, University of Dundee.
    2. Barry Anderson & Emanuele Borgonovo & Marzio Galeotti & Roberto Roson, 2014. "Uncertainty in Climate Change Modeling: Can Global Sensitivity Analysis Be of Help?," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(2), pages 271-293, February.
    3. Alexander Golub & Michael Brody, 2017. "Uncertainty, climate change, and irreversible environmental effects: application of real options to environmental benefit-cost analysis," Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences, Springer;Association of Environmental Studies and Sciences, vol. 7(4), pages 519-526, December.
    4. Daiju Narita & Martin F. Quaas, 2014. "Adaptation To Climate Change And Climate Variability: Do It Now Or Wait And See?," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 5(04), pages 1-28.
    5. Gren, Ing-Marie & Carlsson, Mattias & Elofsson, Katarina & Munnich, Miriam, 2012. "Stochastic carbon sinks for combating carbon dioxide emissions in the EU," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1523-1531.
    6. Yu-Fu Chen & Michael Funke & Nicole Glanemann, 2011. "Dark Clouds or Silver Linings? Knightian Uncertainty and Climate Change," CESifo Working Paper Series 3516, CESifo.
    7. Halkos, George, 2014. "The Economics of Climate Change Policy: Critical review and future policy directions," MPRA Paper 56841, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Duan, Hongbo & Mo, Jianlei & Fan, Ying & Wang, Shouyang, 2018. "Achieving China's energy and climate policy targets in 2030 under multiple uncertainties," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 45-60.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Environmental Economics and Policy;

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:feemdp:99638. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/feemmit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.