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Dark Clouds or Silver Linings? Knightian Uncertainty and Climate Change

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  • Michael Funke

    ()

  • Yu-Fu Chen

    ()

  • Nicole Glanemann

    ()

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of Knightian uncertainty upon optimal climate policy through the prism of a continuous-time real option modelling framework. We analytically determine optimal intertemporal climate policies under ambiguity. Additionally, numerical simulations are provided to illustrate the properties of the model. The results indicate that increasing Knightian uncertainty accelerates climate policy, i.e. policymakers become more reluctant to postpone the timing of climate policies into the future.

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File URL: http://www.uni-hamburg.de/fachbereiche-einrichtungen/fb03/iwwt/makro/Knightian.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Hamburg University, Department of Economics in its series Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers with number 21107.

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Date of creation: Jul 2011
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Handle: RePEc:ham:qmwops:21107

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Keywords: climate change; Knightian uncertainty; ê ambiguity; real options;

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References

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  1. Cox, John C. & Ross, Stephen A., 1976. "The valuation of options for alternative stochastic processes," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 145-166.
  2. Nishimura, Kiyohiko G. & Ozaki, Hiroyuki, 2007. "Irreversible investment and Knightian uncertainty," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 136(1), pages 668-694, September.
  3. Weitzman, Martin L., 2009. "On Modeling and Interpreting the Economics of Catastrophic Climate Change," Scholarly Articles 3693423, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  4. Weitzman, Martin L., 2009. "Additive Damages, Fat-Tailed Climate Dynamics, and Uncertain Discounting," Scholarly Articles 9639963, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  5. Richard Tol, 2002. "Estimates of the Damage Costs of Climate Change. Part 1: Benchmark Estimates," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 21(1), pages 47-73, January.
  6. Michael Funke & Michael Paetz, 2011. "Environmental policy under model uncertainty: a robust optimal control approach," Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers 21108, Hamburg University, Department of Economics.
  7. Robert S. Pindyck, 2009. "Uncertain Outcomes and Climate Change Policy," NBER Working Papers 15259, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Vardas, Giannis & XEPAPADEAS, Anastasios, 2008. "Model Uncertainty, Ambiguity and the Precautionary Principle: Implications for Biodiversity Management," MPRA Paper 10236, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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  10. Brennan, Michael J. & Schwartz, Eduardo S., 1978. "Finite Difference Methods and Jump Processes Arising in the Pricing of Contingent Claims: A Synthesis," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(03), pages 461-474, September.
  11. Martin L. Weitzman, 2011. "Additive Damages, Fat-Tailed Climate Dynamics, and Uncertain Discounting," NBER Chapters, in: The Economics of Climate Change: Adaptations Past and Present, pages 23-46 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Zengjing Chen & Larry Epstein, 2002. "Ambiguity, Risk, and Asset Returns in Continuous Time," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(4), pages 1403-1443, July.
  13. Gilboa, Itzhak & Schmeidler, David, 1989. "Maxmin expected utility with non-unique prior," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 141-153, April.
  14. Antony Millner & Simon Dietz & Geoffrey Heal, 2010. "Ambiguity and climate policy," Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment Working Papers 24, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
  15. Takao Asano, 2010. "Precautionary Principle and the Optimal Timing of Environmental Policy Under Ambiguity," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 47(2), pages 173-196, October.
  16. Leahy, John V, 1993. "Investment in Competitive Equilibrium: The Optimality of Myopic Behavior," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 108(4), pages 1105-33, November.
  17. Ottmar Edenhofer , Brigitte Knopf, Terry Barker, Lavinia Baumstark, Elie Bellevrat, Bertrand Chateau, Patrick Criqui, Morna Isaac, Alban Kitous, Socrates Kypreos, Marian Leimbach, Kai Lessmann, Bertra, 2010. "The Economics of Low Stabilization: Model Comparison of Mitigation Strategies and Costs," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I).
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Cited by:
  1. Yu-Fu Chen & Michael Funke & Nicole Glanemann, 2011. "Time is Running Out: The 2°C Target and Optimal Climate Policies," CESifo Working Paper Series 3664, CESifo Group Munich.

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