Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Dark Clouds or Silver Linings? Knightian Uncertainty and Climate Change

Contents:

Author Info

  • Michael Funke

    ()

  • Yu-Fu Chen

    ()

  • Nicole Glanemann

    ()

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of Knightian uncertainty upon optimal climate policy through the prism of a continuous-time real option modelling framework. We analytically determine optimal intertemporal climate policies under ambiguity. Additionally, numerical simulations are provided to illustrate the properties of the model. The results indicate that increasing Knightian uncertainty accelerates climate policy, i.e. policymakers become more reluctant to postpone the timing of climate policies into the future.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.uni-hamburg.de/fachbereiche-einrichtungen/fb03/iwwt/makro/Knightian.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Hamburg University, Department of Economics in its series Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers with number 21107.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: Jul 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ham:qmwops:21107

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Von-Melle-Park 5 D-20146 Hamburg
Phone: : +49 (0)40 42838-4674
Fax: +49 (0)40 42838-5546
Web page: http://www.uni-hamburg.de/onTEAM/grafik/1223630633/RePec/ham
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: climate change; Knightian uncertainty; ê ambiguity; real options;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Giannis Vardas & Anastasios Xepapadeas, 2010. "Model Uncertainty, Ambiguity and the Precautionary Principle: Implications for Biodiversity Management," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 45(3), pages 379-404, March.
  2. Robert S. Pindyck, 2009. "Uncertain Outcomes and Climate Change Policy," NBER Working Papers 15259, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Richard Tol, 2002. "Estimates of the Damage Costs of Climate Change. Part 1: Benchmark Estimates," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 21(1), pages 47-73, January.
  4. Nishimura, Kiyohiko G. & Ozaki, Hiroyuki, 2007. "Irreversible investment and Knightian uncertainty," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 136(1), pages 668-694, September.
  5. Antony Millner & Simon Dietz & Geoffrey Heal, 2010. "Ambiguity and Climate Policy," NBER Working Papers 16050, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Brennan, Michael J. & Schwartz, Eduardo S., 1978. "Finite Difference Methods and Jump Processes Arising in the Pricing of Contingent Claims: A Synthesis," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(03), pages 461-474, September.
  7. Weitzman, Martin L., 2009. "Additive Damages, Fat-Tailed Climate Dynamics, and Uncertain Discounting," Scholarly Articles 9639963, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  8. Leahy, John V, 1993. "Investment in Competitive Equilibrium: The Optimality of Myopic Behavior," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 108(4), pages 1105-33, November.
  9. Martin L. Weitzman, 2009. "On Modeling and Interpreting the Economics of Catastrophic Climate Change," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 91(1), pages 1-19, February.
  10. Zengjing Chen & Larry G. Epstein, 2000. "Ambiguity, risk and asset returns in continuous time," RCER Working Papers 474, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  11. Cox, John C. & Ross, Stephen A., 1976. "The valuation of options for alternative stochastic processes," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 145-166.
  12. Michael Funke & Michael Paetz, 2007. "Environmental Policy Under Model Uncertainty: A Robust Optimal Control Approach," Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers 20703, Hamburg University, Department of Economics.
  13. Takao Asano, 2010. "Precautionary Principle and the Optimal Timing of Environmental Policy Under Ambiguity," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 47(2), pages 173-196, October.
  14. Weitzman, Martin L., 2009. "Additive Damages, Fat-Tailed Climate Dynamics, and Uncertain Discounting," Economics Discussion Papers 2009-26, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  15. Giuseppe Bertola, 2010. "Options, Inaction, And Uncertainty," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 57(s1), pages 254-271, 07.
  16. Gilboa, Itzhak & Schmeidler, David, 1989. "Maxmin expected utility with non-unique prior," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 141-153, April.
  17. Ottmar Edenhofer , Brigitte Knopf, Terry Barker, Lavinia Baumstark, Elie Bellevrat, Bertrand Chateau, Patrick Criqui, Morna Isaac, Alban Kitous, Socrates Kypreos, Marian Leimbach, Kai Lessmann, Bertra, 2010. "The Economics of Low Stabilization: Model Comparison of Mitigation Strategies and Costs," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I).
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Michael Funke & Yu-Fu Chen & Nicole Glanemann, 2011. "Time is Running Out: The 2°C Target and Optimal Climate Policies," Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers 21111, Hamburg University, Department of Economics.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ham:qmwops:21107. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.