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Oil, Growth and Political Development in Angola

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  • Kyle, Steven C.
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    Abstract

    Angola is more dependent on oil than any other country in Sub Saharan Africa and most other countries as well, apart from a handful of OPEC members. Contributing half or more of GDP, oil revenues condition and distort every other macroeconomic variable in the country, a situation that has existed for decades. Appreciation of the real exchange rate is the main macroeconomic distortion resulting from these inflows of mineral income. The paper demonstrates a marked tendency for the Angolan Kwanza to appreciate in recent years, and continuation of this trend is one of the biggest threats to economic rehabilitation of Angola’s war-torn non-oil economy. Resulting economic distortions are quantified using an index of distortion based on Chenery-Syrquin “standard” growth paths of economic structure. Optimal savings and expenditure rates out of mineral income are calculated based on a permanent income approach to optimal expenditure over time. Finally, implications of oil revenue for the future political development of Angola’s main parties are discussed.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management in its series Working Papers with number 127007.

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    Date of creation: 2007
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    Handle: RePEc:ags:cudawp:127007

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    Related research

    Keywords: International Development; Resource /Energy Economics and Policy;

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    1. Xavier Sala-i-Martin & Arvind Subramanian, 2003. "Addressing the natural resource curse: An illustration from Nigeria," Discussion Papers 0203-15, Columbia University, Department of Economics.
    2. World Bank, 2003. "Iran - Medium Term Framework for Transition : Converting Oil Wealth to Development," World Bank Other Operational Studies 14762, The World Bank.
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