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Agricultural Decision Analysis: The Causal Challenge

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  • Parton, Kevin A.

Abstract

The paper sets out the agenda for reviewing models of decision making in the context of farmers’ use of seasonal climate forecasting. Such forecasts have been framed in terms of shifts in cumulative distribution functions of yields or gross margins. Typically they have been applied to choices about crop variety, crop type, time of planting or level of fertiliser application. Fundamental questions are: how do farmers conceptualise and make use of the information contained in seasonal climate forecasts? Do our models of decision making represent well the way in which these decisions are made?

Suggested Citation

  • Parton, Kevin A., 2009. "Agricultural Decision Analysis: The Causal Challenge," 2009 Conference (53rd), February 11-13, 2009, Cairns, Australia 48150, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aare09:48150
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.48150
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Daniel Kahneman & Amos Tversky, 2013. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 6, pages 99-127, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Weber, Elke U. & Ames, Daniel R. & Blais, Ann-Renée, 2005. "‘How Do I Choose Thee? Let me Count the Ways’: A Textual Analysis of Similarities and Differences in Modes of Decision-making in China and the United States," Management and Organization Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 1(1), pages 87-118, March.
    3. Anderson, Jock R. & Dillon, John L. & Hardaker, Brian, 1977. "Agricultural Decision Analysis," Monographs: Applied Economics, AgEcon Search, number 288652, July.
    4. Anderson, Jock R. & Feder, Gershon, 2007. "Agricultural Extension," Handbook of Agricultural Economics, in: Robert Evenson & Prabhu Pingali (ed.), Handbook of Agricultural Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 44, pages 2343-2378, Elsevier.
    5. Gilboa,Itzhak & Schmeidler,David, 2001. "A Theory of Case-Based Decisions," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521802345.
    6. Chambers,Robert G. & Quiggin,John, 2000. "Uncertainty, Production, Choice, and Agency," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521622448.
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