External Validity of Hypothetical Surveys and Laboratory Experiments
AbstractWe compare the ability of three preference elicitation methods (hypothetical choices, non-hypothetical choices, and non-hypothetical rankings) and three discrete-choice econometric models (the multinomial logit, the independent availability logit, and the random parameter logit) to predict actual retail shopping behavior in three different product categories (ground beef, wheat flour, and dishwashing liquid). Overall, across all methods, we find a reasonably high level of external validity. Our results suggest that the non-hypothetical elicitation approaches, especially the non-hypothetical ranking, outperformed the hypothetical choice experiment in predicting retail sales. We also find that the random parameter logit can have superior predictive performance, but that the multinomial logit predicts equally well in some circumstances.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association) in its series 2008 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2008, Orlando, Florida with number 43600.
Date of creation: 2008
Date of revision:
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contingent valuation; choice experiments; experimental economics; external validity; field experiment; Agribusiness; Consumer/Household Economics; Marketing; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods;
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2008-11-18 (All new papers)
- NEP-DCM-2008-11-18 (Discrete Choice Models)
- NEP-EXP-2008-11-18 (Experimental Economics)
- NEP-UPT-2008-11-18 (Utility Models & Prospect Theory)
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