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Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticy Under Error-Term Non-Normality

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  • Ramirez, Octavio A.
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    Abstract

    This paper explores the impact of error-term non-normality on the performance of the normal-error Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedastic (GARCH) model under small and moderate sample sizes. A non-normal-, asymmetric-error GARCH model is proposed, and its finite-sample performance is evaluated in comparison to the normal-error GARCH under various underlying error-term distributions. The results suggest that one must be skeptical of using the normal-error GARCH when there is evidence of conditional error-term non-normality. The conditional distribution of the error-term in a previous mainstream application of the normal GARCH is found to be non-normal and asymmetric. The same application is used to illustrate the advantages of the proposed non-normal-error GARCH model.

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    File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/20595
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association) in its series 2001 Annual meeting, August 5-8, Chicago, IL with number 20595.

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    Date of creation: 2001
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    Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea01:20595

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    Related research

    Keywords: Error- term non-normality; skewness; autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods;

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    1. Newey, Whitney K., 1988. "Adaptive estimation of regression models via moment restrictions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 301-339, July.
    2. McDonald, James B., 1989. "Partially adaptive estimation of ARMA time series models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 217-230.
    3. McDonald, James B. & Newey, Whitney K., 1988. "Partially Adaptive Estimation of Regression Models via the Generalized T Distribution," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 4(03), pages 428-457, December.
    4. Phillips, Robert F., 1994. "Partially adaptive estimation via a normal mixture," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1-2), pages 123-144.
    5. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
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