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Prediction of Insolvency of Hungarian Micro Enterprises

In: Proceedings of the ENTRENOVA - ENTerprise REsearch InNOVAtion Conference, Rovinj, Croatia, 8-9 September 2016

Author

Listed:
  • Boda, Daniel
  • Luptak, Martin
  • Pitlik, Laszlo
  • Szucs, Gabor
  • Takacs, Istvan

Abstract

The aim of the study is to establish insolvency forecast model with the usage of different statistical methods and compare their efficiency. Besides this the relation and direction between indebtedness and financial distress is also part of the examination. With different approaches we nearly reached the same efficiency, the main focus was on the independent testing sample where we did not apply any modification on the dataset supposing realistic circumstances for predicting the probability of default. The research is focusing on small companies, since their number in the economy is considered high, but for this segment such insolvency forecasts are very rare.

Suggested Citation

  • Boda, Daniel & Luptak, Martin & Pitlik, Laszlo & Szucs, Gabor & Takacs, Istvan, 2016. "Prediction of Insolvency of Hungarian Micro Enterprises," Proceedings of the ENTRENOVA - ENTerprise REsearch InNOVAtion Conference (2016), Rovinj, Croatia, in: Proceedings of the ENTRENOVA - ENTerprise REsearch InNOVAtion Conference, Rovinj, Croatia, 8-9 September 2016, pages 352-359, IRENET - Society for Advancing Innovation and Research in Economy, Zagreb.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:entr16:183737
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stephen A. Ross, 1977. "The Determination of Financial Structure: The Incentive-Signalling Approach," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 8(1), pages 23-40, Spring.
    2. Beaver, Wh, 1966. "Financial Ratios As Predictors Of Failure," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4, pages 71-111.
    3. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis And The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(4), pages 589-609, September.
    4. Ohlson, Ja, 1980. "Financial Ratios And The Probabilistic Prediction Of Bankruptcy," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(1), pages 109-131.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    bankruptcy; market; forecasting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation

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