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Modeling the Outcomes of Vote-Casting in Actual Elections

In: Electoral Systems

Author

Listed:
  • T. Nicolaus Tideman

    (Virginia Tech)

  • Florenz Plassmann

    (Binghamton University)

Abstract

How often do events of interest to voting theorists occur in actual elections? For example, what is the probability of observing a voting cycle – an outcome in which no candidate beats all other candidates in pairwise comparison by majority rule? When there is a candidate who beats all others in such pairwise comparisons – a Condorcet winner – what is the probability that a voting method chooses this candidate?What is the probability that voters have an incentive to vote strategically – that is, cast their votes in ways that do not reflect their true preferences? Voting theorists have analyzed these questions in great detail, using a variety of statistical models that describe different distributions of candidate rankings.

Suggested Citation

  • T. Nicolaus Tideman & Florenz Plassmann, 2012. "Modeling the Outcomes of Vote-Casting in Actual Elections," Studies in Choice and Welfare, in: Dan S. Felsenthal & Moshé Machover (ed.), Electoral Systems, chapter 0, pages 217-251, Springer.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:stcchp:978-3-642-20441-8_9
    DOI: 10.1007/978-3-642-20441-8_9
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ahmad Awde & Mostapha Diss & Eric Kamwa & Julien Yves Rolland & Abdelmonaim Tlidi, 2022. "Social unacceptability for simple voting procedures," Working Papers hal-03614587, HAL.
    2. Florenz Plassmann & T. Tideman, 2014. "How frequently do different voting rules encounter voting paradoxes in three-candidate elections?," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer;The Society for Social Choice and Welfare, vol. 42(1), pages 31-75, January.
    3. Florian Brandl & Felix Brandt & Christian Stricker, 2022. "An analytical and experimental comparison of maximal lottery schemes," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer;The Society for Social Choice and Welfare, vol. 58(1), pages 5-38, January.
    4. William Gehrlein & Florenz Plassmann, 2014. "A comparison of theoretical and empirical evaluations of the Borda Compromise," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer;The Society for Social Choice and Welfare, vol. 43(3), pages 747-772, October.
    5. William V. Gehrlein & Dominique Lepelley & Florenz Plassmann, 2016. "Further Support for Ranking Candidates in Elections," Group Decision and Negotiation, Springer, vol. 25(5), pages 941-966, September.
    6. Ahmad Awde & Mostapha Diss & Eric Kamwa & Julien Yves Rolland & Abdelmonaim Tlidi, 2023. "Social Unacceptability for Simple Voting Procedures," Studies in Choice and Welfare, in: Sascha Kurz & Nicola Maaser & Alexander Mayer (ed.), Advances in Collective Decision Making, pages 25-42, Springer.
    7. T. Tideman & Florenz Plassmann, 2014. "Which voting rule is most likely to choose the “best” candidate?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 158(3), pages 331-357, March.

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